瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-2025-04-02

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable. In the short - term, it's the peak consumption season for the domestic photovoltaic industry, and the demand for distributed installation drives the price increase and inventory reduction of downstream products in the photovoltaic industry chain. However, due to the high polysilicon inventory, the inventory reduction speed is relatively slow. It is recommended to take a short - position strategy for the polysilicon main contract on an intraday basis, and try a short - position at around 43,700 yuan/ton with a stop - loss price of 44,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of polysilicon is 43,680 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 120 yuan/ton; the main contract position volume is 28,096 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,459 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of polysilicon is 570 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 33,920 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 42,000 yuan/ton, with no change; the average price of polysilicon (cauliflower material) is 30.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of polysilicon (dense material) is 33.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average weekly price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 5.01 US dollars/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 US dollars/kg; the average price of polysilicon (re - feed material) is 34 yuan/kg, with no change. The basis of polysilicon is - 1,680 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 120 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The main contract closing price of industrial silicon is 9,760 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 10,200 yuan/ton, with no change. The export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the import volume is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons. The industrial silicon output is 289,350 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,450 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 604,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 13,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 90,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 3,128 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 812 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.29 US dollars/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2,190 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 140 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 67,001,000 kilowatts, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,137,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 71,334,590 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 24,503,790 units; the monthly import volume is 11,968,380 units, with a month - on - month increase of 4,161,000 units; the monthly average import price is 0.26 US dollars/unit, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 US dollars/unit. The comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 23.53, with no change [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of April 2, the mainstream market prices of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material, N - type dense material, re - feed material, and N - type granular silicon are stable. A 7.9 - magnitude earthquake in Myanmar mainly affected Yunnan, a major industrial silicon production area, but due to weak polysilicon demand and low operating rates, there is currently no impact [2].