Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-02 09:18Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated weakly, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. Internationally, there are concerns about economic recession risks and the impact of tariffs on inflation and employment. Domestically, policies are promoting the use of intelligent terminal consumer goods. Fundamentally, the processing fees for copper concentrates continue to decline, and the supply of raw materials may become tighter. The domestic supply may decrease due to smelter maintenance and import window closure. On the demand side, the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season and positive macro - policies are expected to boost demand, but the impact of rising copper prices on downstream purchasing should not be ignored. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply, steadily increasing demand, and positive expectations. In the options market, the sentiment is relatively balanced, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows red bars converging below the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 79,890 yuan/ton, down 540 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,695 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars. The spread between the main contract months was 30 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract was 196,044 lots, down 2,275 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 6,313 lots, up 905 lots. The LME copper inventory was 213,275 tons, up 1,900 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) cathode copper inventory was 235,296 tons, down 21,032 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant was 130,379 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 80,055 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market 1 copper spot price was 80,115 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 98 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 66 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 165 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 71 dollars/ton, down 16.5 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 218.25 million tons, down 34.88 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 24.14 dollars/thousand tons, down 1.26 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 70,380 yuan/metal ton, up 110 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 71,080 yuan/metal ton, up 110 yuan. The processing fees for crude copper in the south and north were 1,100 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively, up 250 yuan and 100 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 124.20 million tons, up 10.90 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 420,000 tons, unchanged. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 0 yuan/ton, down 57,590 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 227.28 million tons, up 13.23 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 436.20 billion yuan, down 5,646.38 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 10,719.74 billion yuan, down 89,560.48 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,277,402,800 pieces, up 521,990,500 pieces [2] Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 14.02%, up 0.21 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.25%, up 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in the current month was 14.76%, up 0.0035 percentage points. The call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.11, up 0.0426 [2] Industry News - The US "reciprocal tariff" is about to be implemented on April 2. The EU has a counter - measure plan. Fed officials are concerned about the impact of tariffs on inflation and employment. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 points from February. The Ministry of Commerce promotes the work of consumer goods replacement. The added value of the above - scale electronic information manufacturing industry from January to February increased by 10.6% year - on - year. New energy vehicle companies released their March sales results, with some achieving significant growth [2]