Report Title - The daily report of the oil and fat, oilseed industry [1] Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: The rise in US soybean oil prices has led to an increase in international palm oil prices, widening the import inversion of the domestic palm oil market. Weak import profits have curbed palm oil purchases, resulting in a continued weak supply outlook. Low port inventories support near - term prices. The large price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has squeezed palm oil consumption, with monthly demand remaining at a rigid level of 200,000 tons. Warmer weather does not boost blended oil demand due to the price difference. The expected increase in production in palm - growing regions is likely to suppress far - term prices [3]. - Soybean oil: In April, previously purchased soybeans are arriving at ports, increasing the pressure on the supply side and expected oil mill crushing rates. With no increase in consumption to absorb the supply, soybean oil inventories are expected to enter an accumulation cycle. Given the expected increase in both palm oil and soybean oil supply, the price difference between the two may narrow in the far - term to compete for market share [3]. - Rapeseed oil: Far - term prices are supported by reduced imports of rapeseed and policy premiums. Currently, the supply of rapeseed oil is at a peak as previously purchased rapeseed has arrived at ports, and coastal rapeseed inventories are decreasing. As new supply becomes limited, the rate of inventory reduction is expected to accelerate. Policy premiums have kept the price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil at a level that discourages rapeseed oil consumption, which remains at a rigid level. High inventories suppress near - term prices, while policy uncertainties support far - term prices [3]. Oilseeds - After the release of the planting area report, the futures market declined due to the exhaustion of positive factors. For imported soybeans, recent price drops in both domestic and international markets have led to a decrease in Brazilian soybean premiums. Purchase contracts are mainly for Brazilian soybeans with potential crushing profits in the far - term. The arrival of soybeans is entering a seasonally high - pressure period, with 8.5 million tons expected in April and 10.5 million tons in May. For domestic soybean meal, some northern regions will remain shut down in the first half of April, with a strong price - support mentality in different regions, while the supply in the south is relatively loose. After the arrival of soybeans, the supply is expected to be well - connected. On the demand side, with sufficient future supply, buyers are cautious about long - term stocking, mainly fulfilling previous contracts and purchasing as needed. For rapeseed meal, the supply pressure in the first half of the year is lower than that of soybean meal. Current moderately high inventories may limit price increases. As the downstream aquaculture industry enters the peak stocking season in the second quarter, the rate of inventory reduction is expected to accelerate. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to remain small, but due to weak demand, it is difficult to form an independent or inverted price trend in the spot market [14][16]. Price and Spread Information Fats and Oils - Inter - monthly and inter - variety spreads: P 1 - 5 is - 760 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; P 5 - 9 is 636 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; P 9 - 1 is 124 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Y - P 01 is - 652 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; Y - P 05 is - 1318 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; Y - P 09 is - 700 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan; Y 1 - 5 is - 94 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; Y 5 - 9 is 18 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Y 9 - 1 is 76 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; Y/M 01 is 2.6501, down 0.03%; Y/M 05 is 2.8199, up 0.14%; Y/M 09 is 2.6711, down 0.07%; OI 1 - 5 is - 163 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; OI 5 - 9 is - 49 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; OI 9 - 1 is 212 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; OI/RM 01 is 3.9672, down 0.06%; OI/RM 05 is 3.7092, up 0.47%; OI/RM 09 is 3.5319, up 0.27% [4][6]. - Palm oil spot and futures prices: Palm oil 01 is 8,544 yuan/ton, up 1.74%; Palm oil 05 is 9,304 yuan/ton, up 1.73%; Palm oil 09 is 8,668 yuan/ton, up 1.95%; BMD palm oil futures is 4,520 ringgit/ton, up 2.29%; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 9,640 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the basis in Guangzhou is 552 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; POGO is 549.023 dollars/ton, down 1.168 dollars; the price difference between international soybean oil and palm oil is - 155.14 dollars/ton, up 2.12 dollars [8]. - Soybean oil spot and futures prices: Soybean oil 01 is 7,892 yuan/ton, up 0.95%; Soybean oil 05 is 7,986 yuan/ton, up 1%; Soybean oil 09 is 7,968 yuan/ton, up 1.08%; CBOT soybean oil futures is 47.42 cents/pound, up 5.71%; Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 8,210 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the basis in Shandong is 224 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; BOHO (weekly) is 69.3987 dollars/barrel, down 5.7085 dollars; the price difference between domestic first - grade soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil is - 1,280 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [11]. Oilseeds - Futures prices: Bean meal 01 is 2,978 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan (0.95%); Bean meal 05 is 2,832 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan (1%); Bean meal 09 is 2,983 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan (1.08%); Rapeseed meal 01 is 2,345 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan (1.56%); Rapeseed meal 05 is 2,552 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan (1.27%); Rapeseed meal 09 is 2,694 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan (1.09%); CBOT soybeans is 1,032.75 cents/bushel, unchanged; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.2829, up 0.0224 (0.31%) [17]. - Price differences between bean meal and rapeseed meal: M01 - 05 is 146 yuan/ton, unchanged; M05 - 09 is - 151 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; M09 - 01 is 5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; RM01 - 05 is - 207 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; RM05 - 09 is - 142 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; RM09 - 01 is 349 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the spot price of bean meal in Rizhao is 3,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of bean meal in Rizhao is 248 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2,571 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the basis of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 51 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan; the spot price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal is 509 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal is 280 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [18].
油脂油料产业日报-2025-04-02
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-04-02 11:25