PTA月报：“金三银四”恐难再现-2025-04-02

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The so - called "Golden March and Silver April" may not reappear in the PTA market. PTA prices are expected to be range - bound in April due to high inventory and weakening demand, although the processing margin is expected to recover [8][17][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In March, the average PTA futures price declined. Crude oil and PX prices dropped month - on - month. The regional risk premium of crude oil disappeared, and PX followed the decline of crude oil. Despite PTA device maintenance, high inventory restricted price recovery. Although downstream demand rebounded, overall sales were not strong, resulting in limited demand support. As a result, PTA fluctuated weakly [11] 3.2 Fundamental Situation and Core Driving Force Analysis 3.2.1 PX Supply - Demand Contradiction Eases - In March, the PX - naphtha spread was around $180 - 205 per ton, and the PX price was around $850 - 901 per ton. At the beginning of the month, affected by macro factors, international oil prices were weak, PX maintenance was postponed, and PTA maintenance plans were implemented, leading to a stronger PX supply - demand contradiction and a weak PX price. Later, the macro environment changed, oil prices rose, PX cost support strengthened, and the market sentiment improved, causing PX to enter a consolidation phase. - In April, due to increased macro uncertainties and the potential OPEC+ production increase plan, the market bearish sentiment intensifies, and crude oil is expected to decline weakly, with weak cost support. The domestic PX supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease. With the arrival of the peak oil product consumption season, PX will still be boosted. It is expected that the absolute price of PX will be relatively warm in April, and the relative price will be slightly repaired [12][14][17] 3.2.2 PTA Maintenance Alleviates Supply Pressure - In March, PTA maintenance and the willingness to maintain increased, the operating rate declined slightly, but polyester procurement was poor, and the overall fundamental improvement was limited. The social inventory decreased from 5.481 million tons at the end of February to 5.377 million tons at the end of March. The processing margin was maintained at 200 - 350 yuan per ton, remaining at a low level. - In April, the PTA load has declined. According to the announced maintenance plans, there are still some devices planned for maintenance in April. It is unlikely that new PTA devices will be put into operation in the second quarter, so the PTA supply pressure is limited. Downstream, new polyester devices are being continuously put into operation. In the second quarter, the demand for polyester bottle chips increases due to the peak season of soft drinks, which is beneficial to PTA demand. However, products such as filament are under maintenance, resulting in a neutral PTA supply - demand situation [16][17] 3.2.3 Production Cut Expectations Weaken Consumption Support - As of the end of March, the inventory days of FDY, POY, DTY, and polyester staple fiber were 31.16 days, 27.74 days, 31.88 days, and 14.24 days respectively. Compared with the end of February, the inventory days increased by 0.85 days, 4.08 days, decreased by 1.6 days, and decreased by 1 day respectively. Although the downstream weaving load continued to recover, the actual order volume was limited, and the purchasing willingness was poor due to macro risks, so the inventory pressure continued. - As of the end of March, the prices of polyester bottle chips, DTY, POY, and FDY were 6,050 yuan per ton, 8,200 yuan per ton, 6,900 yuan per ton, and 7,150 yuan per ton respectively, showing a slight decline compared with the end of February. The prices of polyester bottle chips, DTY, POY, and FDY decreased by 190 yuan per ton, 200 yuan per ton, 275 yuan per ton, and 350 yuan per ton respectively. The polyester cash flow remained low, and the price volatility of polyester products decreased, mainly following the raw materials. - Currently, the physical inventory of mainstream staple fiber factories has exceeded 20 days, and there is a large amount of staple fiber social inventory. The inventory of polyester filament has reached around one - month level. The inventory accumulation is a characteristic of the entire industrial chain, and many enterprises choose to jointly cut production to support prices and profits. The weak profit of polyester bottle chips also makes the market wait - and - see sentiment strong. The weakening load of polyester products weakens the support for PTA consumption improvement, and the expected continuous destocking in April may not continue. The support of polyester for PTA has probably reached its peak and is difficult to improve [27][40] 3.3 Future Outlook - Similar to the previous analysis, in April, crude oil is expected to decline weakly, the domestic PX supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease, and PX prices are expected to be relatively warm. PTA has a spring - maintenance expectation, and the destocking expectation is strong. However, due to the expected production cut of downstream polyester, the demand support for PTA is limited. The PTA supply - demand pattern is expected to improve slightly, but the terminal textile orders are insufficient, especially the foreign trade orders are poor, making the support of PTA consumption for the market questionable. PTA processing margin is expected to recover, and the price will be range - bound due to high inventory and weakening demand [41][42]