聚烯烃月报：检修季供应压力暂缓，需求季节性减弱酝酿下行风险-2025-04-02

1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Monthly Report [1] - Date: April 2, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Core View: Maintenance season eases supply pressure, while seasonal demand weakening brews downward risks [5] 2. Market Review - In February, plastics were slightly stronger than PP. In March, the peak season started, downstream开工 increased, and the demand side was strengthened. Mid - to late - March saw high - level maintenance ease supply pressure, and the cost side rebounded. PP05 was supported at 7300, and LLDPE fluctuated around 7700 [11]. - In the spot market, LLDPE monthly average price was 8197 yuan/ton, down 1.35% month - on - month and 0.91% year - on - year. LDPE was 9976 yuan/ton, down 1.60% month - on - month and up 7.80% year - on - year. HDPE prices varied. PP in East China had a drawstring average of 7347.25 yuan/ton, down 0.72% month - on - month and 1.38% year - on - year, and copolymer was 7593.25 yuan/ton, down 0.94% month - on - month and 0.04% year - on - year [12]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Supply - In March 2025, PP production was estimated at 3.2833 million tons, up 11.52% month - on - month and 13.64% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to March was 9.5209 million tons, up 12.13% year - on - year. The PP plant operating rate was estimated at 79.66%, up 0.58 percentage points from February [12]. - PE production in March was estimated at 2.6685 million tons, up 7.06% month - on - month and 12.1% year - on - year. The operating rate was estimated at 81.97%, down 1.72 percentage points from last month. There were some PE plant overhauls in March [13]. - New polyolefin production capacities are planned to be put into operation in 2025, with many concentrated in the first half of the year [25][26]. 3.2 Import and Export - In February 2025, PE imports were 1.3252 million tons, up 9.43% month - on - month and 27% year - on - year. PP imports were 307,900 tons, up 15.93% month - on - month. From January to February, PP exports increased significantly, while PE exports decreased [27]. - In March, the import window was difficult to open, and PP exports were expected to remain high [27]. 3.3 Inventory - Currently in the destocking cycle, inventory pressure was prominent in the early stage and eased in the middle and late stages. By the end of March, PP producer inventory decreased by 6.13% month - on - month, and trader inventory decreased by 16.46% month - on - month. PE social sample average inventory decreased by 2.69% month - on - month and 17.53% year - on - year [36]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Coal: In the off - season, coal prices were under pressure, but there was support during the spring inspection in April [43]. - Crude oil: OPEC+ supply decreased, and US sanctions tightened supply. Oil prices were expected to bottom out and rebound [43]. - Oil - based production: Losses in oil - based PP decreased, and naphtha - based PE profits increased [44]. - Coal - based production: Profits of coal - based PP and PE increased [44]. - PDH - based production: Losses in PDH - based PP decreased [45]. 3.5 Downstream Demand - In March, downstream开工 continued to increase, but subsequent orders were insufficient. PP downstream开工 increased, but demand support was limited [51][54]. - From January to February 2025, the domestic sales market was good. After the national subsidy policy was extended, consumer sentiment was cautious. In April, the production of air - conditioners increased, while that of refrigerators decreased and that of washing machines slightly increased [62]. 4. Outlook - In the short term, it is a volatile market as maintenance eases supply pressure and cost support exists. In the long term, supply pressure and tariff impacts may drag down prices, so a short - selling strategy is recommended [7][70].