美银：主动型基金经理的持仓情况更新-究竟是怎么想的呢？

Investment Rating - The report suggests an overweight (O/W) position in large-cap value stocks, particularly in sectors like Utilities, Energy, and Staples, which are expected to perform well in stagflationary conditions [2][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that active managers are currently underweight in sectors that typically benefit from stagflation, such as Energy, Utilities, and Staples, despite a significant portion of investors expecting stagflation [8]. - It highlights that multinationals are perceived as quality investments due to their diversified income streams, with a shift in focus towards value over growth due to lower global sales exposure amid tariff risks [26]. - The report indicates that European equities have seen record passive inflows, suggesting a strong sentiment towards these markets [12][18]. Summary by Sections Investor Positioning - Mutual fund positioning is skewed towards US stocks with high foreign sales exposure, indicating a preference for these stocks despite trade war concerns [3][10]. - Long-only funds (LOs) are underweight in Energy, Utilities, and Staples, even though over 70% of surveyed investors expect stagflation [8][9]. - The report notes that LOs have significantly reduced their exposure to US Autos since the 2016 election, now being approximately 40% underweight [21]. Sector Performance - Historical data shows that Utilities, Staples, and Energy sectors have consistently outperformed during stagflationary periods, with average annualized returns of 10.7%, 10.3%, and 10.2% respectively [9]. - The report suggests that the value benchmark is a better hedge against stagflation compared to the growth benchmark due to its lower foreign exposure [2][26]. Passive vs. Active Investing - There has been a notable shift from active to passive investing, with passive equity flows exceeding 50% of total US assets under management (AUM) [56]. - The report indicates that the current market environment favors active strategies over passive index investing due to increased valuation dispersion, which presents opportunities for stock selection [61][66]. Hedge Fund Positioning - Hedge funds (HFs) are reported to have a low relative exposure to cyclical sectors compared to historical averages, with a significant focus on defensive sectors like Utilities and Communication Services [69][73]. - The report identifies Energy as the most shorted sector, indicating a bearish sentiment among hedge funds [71][75].