建信期货棉花日报-2025-04-03

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: April 3, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - The rebound of US cotton prices has boosted the rise of Zhengzhou cotton futures. The current spot price of 328-grade cotton is 14,874 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream market has shown some improvement in demand, but there are still concerns about the end of the traditional peak season after the Tomb-Sweeping Festival [7]. - The projected cotton planting area in the US for the 2025/26 season is 9.867 million acres, slightly lower than market expectations and the February forecast. This reduction in planting area provides some support for US cotton prices. In the domestic market, downstream product inventories are low and production remains stable. Spinning mills with low raw material inventories have increased their demand for cotton in the short term, providing support for cotton prices. However, the market is still waiting for a clear direction, and attention should be paid to the impact of external markets and tariff policies [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market Review: US cotton prices continued to rebound, driving up Zhengzhou cotton futures. The spot price of 328-grade cotton rose, and the basis for different grades of cotton in Xinjiang was reported. The cotton yarn market remained stable, with spinning mills selling products at reasonable prices. The downstream orders were short-term sustainable, and some spinning mills planned to have a 2 - 3 day holiday during the Tomb-Sweeping Festival. The cotton fabric market had rigid demand, but overall production and sales were difficult to balance due to weak downstream demand, and the loom operating rate remained stable [7]. - Operational Suggestions: The reduction in the projected US cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season supports US cotton prices. In the domestic market, downstream demand has improved, and cotton prices are supported. However, the market is waiting for a clear direction. Attention should be paid to the actual planting situation in the US, the drought in Texas, the potential summer demand, and the end of the traditional peak season after the Tomb-Sweeping Festival. Short-term market direction depends on external markets and tariff policies [8]. 2. Industry News - The projected cotton planting area in the US for the 2025/26 season is 9.867 million acres, lower than the February forecast of 10 million acres and the 2024 final planting area of 11.182 million acres [9]. - As of the week ending March 28, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton reached 3.1825 million tons, accounting for 101.4% of the estimated annual cotton production, 19.5% faster than the same period last year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 101.44%, 19% faster year-on-year, and that of Pima cotton was 100.5%, 49% faster year-on-year [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts related to the cotton market, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis, spreads, commercial and industrial inventories, and currency exchange rates [16][18][20]