融达期货宏观日报0403

Trade Policy Changes - President Trump signed two executive orders establishing a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on trade partners, effective April 5, 2025[1] - Higher "reciprocal tariffs" will be imposed on countries with the largest trade deficits with the U.S., effective April 9, 2025[1] - A 25% tariff on imported cars took effect on April 3, 2025[1] Employment Data - U.S. ADP employment increased by 155,000 in March, significantly exceeding market expectations of 84,000[1] - Manufacturing jobs rose by 21,000, marking the largest increase since October 2022[1] - Despite policy uncertainties and low consumer confidence, the U.S. job market remains robust[1] Commodity Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed results, with energy and chemical products mostly rising; PVC increased by 1.22%[1] - Black metals mostly declined, with aluminum oxide down by 1.61% and zinc down by 0.71%[1] - Agricultural products generally rose, with vegetable oil up by 1.78%[1] Global Asset Performance - NYMEX crude oil closed at $70.73, down 0.58%[4] - COMEX gold rose by 1.33% to $3190.30, with a year-on-year increase of 34.24%[4] - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.67% to 5670.97, with a year-on-year growth of 12.92%[4] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield decreased by 1.36% to 1.79%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slightly increased by 0.03% to 4.20%[4] - The China-U.S. interest rate spread stands at -2.41, reflecting a decrease of 0.05%[4]