建信期货油脂日报-2025-04-03

Report Overview - Report Date: April 3, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fats [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is concerned about the prospects of the US biomass diesel policy, and the USDA monthly crush report shows that the US soybean oil inventory is lower than expected. The sharp rise in US soybean oil drives the entire oil and fat sector. The increase in biomass diesel blending volume may increase the demand for US soybean oil by about 1.8 million tons. - Domestic oils and fats have different upward trends. Soybean oil is mainly traded in the domestic market, and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals in the second quarter puts pressure on soybean oils and fats. The spread arbitrage of going long on soybean oil 09 and short on palm oil 09 performs poorly. - China's additional 100% tariff on rapeseed oil and oilseed cake from Canada has taken effect, and the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed is pending. Affected by policies, future supply is uncertain, which is beneficial to far - month contracts. - Biodiesel policies and trade frictions significantly amplify market volatility risks. Supported by policies, the overall oil and fat market remains strong. Attention should be paid to policy changes. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: In the East China region, the price of first - grade soybean oil is Y2505 + 260 from April to May, Y2509 + 220 from June to July, Y2509 + 230 from June to August, and Y2509 + 240 from June to September. In Dongguan, the quoted price of first - grade rapeseed oil from each factory is 05 + 200, and the quoted price of third - grade rapeseed oil is 05 + 40. In South China, the basis quotes are Dongguan 18 - degree palm oil P05 + 720 yuan/ton and Dongguan 24 - degree palm oil P05 + 460 yuan/ton. - Market Comments: The rise in US soybean oil drives the entire oil and fat sector. The potential increase in biomass diesel blending volume may increase US soybean oil demand. Domestic oils and fats have different trends, and policies have an impact on supply and price trends. [7][8] 3.2 Industry News - As of the end of February, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.924 billion pounds, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.4%, which was much lower than analysts' forecasts. - The 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production is expected to be 167.54 million tons, lower than the previous forecast due to poor weather in Rio Grande do Sul. - Brazil's soybean exports in March reached 16.09 million tons, setting a new monthly record. - The USDA expects US farmers to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans in 2025, lower than market expectations. [9][16] 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the basis changes of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, the spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil, the P1 - 5, P5 - 9, and P9 - 1 spreads of palm oil, and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Malaysian ringgit. [12][14][15][17][22][23]