建信期货钢材日评-2025-04-03

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The improvement in steel demand cannot be reflected in the futures market due to strong expectations of domestic crude steel production cuts and frequent international trade disputes, which have a negative impact on steel prices in terms of exports and costs. - It is expected that the negative factors will be mostly digested by mid - to late April, after which the steel prices may start a rebound after a period of low - level fluctuations. It is advisable to consider buying and hedging or investing in the far - month 2510 contract after the market stabilizes in mid - to late April [11]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review - Futures Market: On April 2, the main contracts 2505 of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated strongly and closed slightly higher, while the main contract 2505 of stainless - steel futures opened higher and then oscillated. For example, the RB2505 contract closed at 3166 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase, the HC2505 contract closed at 3352 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase, and the SS2505 contract closed at 13560 yuan/ton with a 0.71% increase [5][6]. - Spot Market: The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices showed different changes in various regions. For instance, the rebar price in Hangzhou increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil price in Beijing increased by 20 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar 2505 and hot - rolled coil 2505 contracts showed different trends, and the daily MACD green bars of both contracts expanded [9][10]. 3.2 Industry News - In March, the construction steel market prices in Shandong first declined and then rebounded, with the mainstream rebar price dropping to 3360 yuan/ton by the end of the month, a 60 - yuan/ton decrease from the end of February. The market inventory continued to decline, with a continuous 4 - week decline after 3 weeks of increase in February [12]. - On April 2, the capacity utilization rate of 104 electric - arc furnace plants across the country was 38.8%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The daily consumption of scrap steel in these plants was 22.19 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period. The number of operating electric - arc furnace plants decreased by 1 to 80, accounting for 76.9% [12]. - The total scrap steel inventory of 300 long - and short - process representative steel mills across the country on April 2 was 4.9317 billion tons, a 0.07% decrease from the previous day. The inventory turnover days remained at 8.2 days, and the daily consumption increased by 0.43% while the daily arrival decreased by 0.08% [12]. - In March, 17 blast furnaces were under maintenance, reducing the daily hot - metal output by 67,300 tons, and 29 blast furnaces resumed production, increasing the daily hot - metal output by 124,000 tons. In April, 3 blast furnaces are planned for maintenance, reducing the daily output by 20,000 tons, and 15 are planned to resume production, increasing the daily output by 78,700 tons. It is estimated that the daily hot - metal output of sample steel mills will reach 2.463 million tons on April 30, a 50,000 - ton increase from March [12]. - The US Secretary of Commerce is involved in the potential acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel. Ancora, a shareholder of US Steel, hopes to replace the board and appoint a CEO, planning to invest $6 - 7 billion. Nippon Steel has proposed an additional $7 billion investment to save the $14.1 - billion deal [13]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and steel mill inventory of five major steel products, the blast furnace and electric - arc furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average hot - metal output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and the May contracts [16][18][20][27][30][34].