广发早知道：汇总版-2025-04-03

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping indices, and multiple commodity sectors. The core view is that the markets are significantly affected by the US "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by Trump, which has led to increased market volatility and uncertainty. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The US's unexpected tariff increase will affect short - term market sentiment. A - share markets were volatile, and the four major stock index futures contracts had mixed performances. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish view and pay attention to subsequent domestic hedging policies [2][3][5]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Despite the central bank's net withdrawal, the capital interest rate decreased. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy increased due to the US tariff plan. Treasury bond futures are expected to rise rapidly. It is recommended to go long in the short - term, and pay attention to various strategies such as basis trading and curve trading [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: The US tariff policy announcement has a short - term impact. Gold prices rose slightly due to safe - haven sentiment, and silver prices were boosted by other non - ferrous metals. The long - term drivers for gold remain unchanged, and the price is expected to reach $3200 per ounce this year [8][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - Container Shipping: The spot price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, and the futures market will be volatile. There may be upward opportunities for the 06 and 08 contracts in the peak season. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short - term and consider going long on the 08 contract [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The US reciprocal tariff is higher than expected, putting short - term pressure on copper prices. The supply of copper ore and scrap copper is tight, but high prices suppress demand. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 77000 - 80000 [20]. - Zinc: The price is under pressure and has declined due to tariff - related risk aversion. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 22000 [20]. - Tin: Supply disruptions and low LME inventories have led to a sharp increase in tin prices. The traditional demand is weak, while the emerging demand has support. It is recommended to wait and see [23][25][26]. - Nickel: The reciprocal tariff has little impact on the fundamentals. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 126000 - 134000. It is necessary to pay attention to macro changes and the situation of the ore end [26][29]. - Stainless Steel: Raw materials provide strong support, and there is a continuous game between supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13200 - 13600 [30][32]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures market is volatile, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. It is recommended to go short on rallies, with the main contract in the range of 72000 - 76000 [33][36]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: The blast furnace continues to resume production, and the five major steel products are seasonally destocking. The demand is affected by the US tariff policy. It is recommended to avoid going long for now and pay attention to the 5 - 10 positive spread [37][39]. - Iron Ore: There are frequent macro disturbances, and the height of hot metal production recovery is uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 750 - 820 [40][41]. - Coke: After the eleventh round of price cuts, the market is temporarily stable. The supply and demand have improved marginally, but the futures have over - anticipated the rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies [42][44]. - Coking Coal: The market auction has improved, and coal mine production has slightly increased, but the inventory is high. The futures have over - anticipated the rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies [45][47]. - Silicon Iron: Attention should be paid to production cuts and macro - sentiment changes. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [48][50]. - Silicon Manganese: Production cuts are being implemented. It is necessary to be vigilant about the ore end and macro - sentiment disturbances. The price is expected to fluctuate [51][54]. Agricultural Products - Meal: Trump's tariff policy has weakened market sentiment. The soybean meal price is expected to remain volatile, and the rapeseed meal price is expected to adjust weakly [55][57]. - Pigs: The spot price fluctuates slightly. Attention should be paid to the risk of increasing pig weight. The futures price is supported to some extent by the basis [58][59]. - Corn: The supply is stable, and the short - term market is active. The price is expected to rebound in the short - term and be strong in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [61][63]. - Sugar: The raw sugar price rebounds, and the domestic price oscillates at a high level. The raw sugar will fluctuate in the range of 17 - 20 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a high - level shock [64]. - Cotton: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic downstream situation has improved marginally. The domestic cotton price is expected to move within a range [66].