大越期货菜粕早报-2025-04-03

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2505 contract is recommended to operate within the range of 2530 - 2590 in the intraday session [9] - Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short - term due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, but the supply - demand fundamentals will keep the price in a range - bound oscillation [10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2505: Intraday operation range is from 2530 to 2590 [9] 2. Recent News - Domestic aquatic aquaculture is in the off - season, with a supply - demand stalemate in the spot market [12] - Canada's rapeseed annual output decreased slightly, China imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing [12] - Global rapeseed production decreased slightly this year, affected by reduced EU output and lower - than - expected Canadian output [12] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodity prices [12] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [13] - Bearish factors: Increased imported rapeseed arrivals after March; uncertainty in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and seasonal off - season demand for rapeseed meal [13] - Current main logic: Market focuses on domestic aquatic aquaculture demand and expectations of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13] 4. Fundamental Data - Price and Spread: From March 24 to April 2, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the 2505 contract's soybean - rapeseed meal spread oscillated. Rapeseed meal futures and spot prices fluctuated, and the basis remained near par [14][15][22] - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory was 30,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.69%. Imported rapeseed arrivals in March were lower than expected, and oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories continued to decline [10][27][29] - Supply - Demand Balance: Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance tables show historical data on harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [25][26] 5. Position Data - The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [10]