铝日报-2025-04-03

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: April 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team, including researchers Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum Price Movement: On the 2nd, Shanghai aluminum continued to decline, with the main contract reaching a low of 20,365 yuan/ton and closing at 20,435 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous trading day. The total index position decreased by 2,812 to 492,595 lots [9]. - Spot Market: As the futures price declined, downstream replenishment increased. In the back structure, holders were more willing to sell. The premium in East China was 10, the discount in Central China was -60, and the discount in South China was -30. It is expected that the premium and discount will continue to stabilize and rise [9]. - Import Situation: The import loss continued to narrow, closing at around -1,300 yuan/ton, currently in a closed state [9]. - Alumina Market: The alumina market was bearish, with the closing price falling below 2,900, hitting new lows. Short-term production cuts and maintenance could not change the expectation of loose supply, and the weakness was difficult to reverse [9]. - Aluminum Industry Profit: The average profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry was still around 3,700 yuan/ton, and the operating capacity of the industry continued to rise slightly [9]. - Demand Support: In the traditional peak season, although the traditional real estate sector still had a drag, the demand from the photovoltaic, new energy vehicle, and UHV sectors provided core support, driving the de - stocking inflection point earlier than expected. The resilience of consumption supported the domestic aluminum price [9]. - Operation Suggestions: High - level short positions established earlier could consider gradually taking profits, and long positions should wait for low - level entry and conduct rolling operations [9]. Group 3: Industry News - India's Anti - Dumping Decision: India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry issued an affirmative final anti - dumping ruling on aluminum foil with a thickness of no more than 80 microns originating from or imported from China and recommended a 5 - year anti - dumping duty of 479 - 721 US dollars/ton [10]. - Tiwai Point Aluminum Smelter: Rio Tinto agreed to postpone the resumption of production at the Tiwai Point electrolytic aluminum plant until August 31 at the latest to ensure 50MW of power supply for Meridian Energy in the winter of 2025. The plant's installed capacity is 365,000 tons, and the current resumption progress is about 70% [11]. - Hydro's Expansion Plan: In March 2025, Norwegian aluminum and renewable energy company Hydro announced a plan to build a new wire casting workshop with an annual output of 110,000 tons at its Karmøy electrolytic aluminum plant, with a total investment of 1.65 billion Norwegian kroner (about 156 million US dollars). The new facility will mainly supply power cables for European energy infrastructure [11].