建信期货铁矿石日评-2025-04-03

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the supply and demand of iron ore are both increasing, and there is no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals. After the implementation of production cuts in Xinjiang, market sentiment has eased, but the momentum for continuous price increase is not strong. Under the guidance of a tense international trade environment and the domestic policy of "supporting the excellent and eliminating the inferior", the expectation of industry production cuts remains strong, and iron ore prices still face pressure. It is recommended to wait for the release of market pessimism and price stabilization, and then try to conduct buy-hedging or investment strategies for the far-month 2509 contract [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 - Market Review: On April 3, the main 2505 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated upward, opened higher, then fluctuated lower, and rebounded at the end of the session, closing at 791.5 yuan/ton, up 1.09% [7]. - Spot Market and Technical Analysis: On April 3, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes increased by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port rose by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2505 contract continued to rise, and the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2505 contract has enlarged for two consecutive trading days [9]. - Market Outlook: Xinjiang's four steel mills announced production control and reduction, with a 10% daily reduction in crude steel production since March 24. After the implementation of production cuts in Xinjiang, market sentiment has improved. In terms of fundamentals, the shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil remained high last week, and the arrivals at 45 ports decreased again. The supply of iron ore is in a loose state and is expected to remain so in the near future. The demand for the five major steel products and the daily average pig iron output continued to increase last week, but the growth rate slowed down, and the growth space of pig iron output is limited. The apparent demand for the five major steel products has been lower than that of the same period last year since last week. The inventory of steel mills decreased by 1 day to 21 days, and the port inventory is expected to gradually accumulate in the next half - month [10][12][13]. 3.2 Industry News - On April 2, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism", proposing to deepen price market - oriented reforms, accelerate the construction of key - area markets, and improve the public - utility price mechanism that promotes sustainable development [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the spread between high - grade and low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the May contract, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volume at main ports, the inventory available days of steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port inventory and dispatch volume, the cost of pig iron without tax for sample steel mills, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, the weekly output of the five major steel products, and the inventory of the five major steel products in steel mills [20][21][23]