Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US unexpectedly increased tariffs, which will affect the short - term market sentiment, and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy has increased [2]. - The impact of the US tariff policy announcement is expected to land in the short - term, and precious metals prices are rising [2]. - The EC (European Line) of the container shipping index shows a narrow - range oscillation [2]. - The blast furnace in the steel industry continues the resumption trend, and the five major steel products are seasonally destocking [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - As the earnings period approaches, wait for profit verification. The third - round of unexpectedly increased 34% tariffs announced by Trump may affect short - term sentiment. Pay attention to subsequent domestic hedging policies. Suggest to follow the trend and go long in the short - term [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, the capital interest rate declined overall. The unexpectedly large - scale tariff increase on China by the US has strengthened the market's expectation of loose monetary policy. It is expected that treasury bond futures will be relatively strong in the short - term. Consider positive arbitrage strategies and basis widening strategies for TF and TS contracts [2]. Precious Metals - After the US tariff is implemented, the gold price fluctuates greatly. Keep a low - buying idea or sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. The resistance of the international silver price at the previous high of $34.8 (8,600 yuan) needs to be broken through. Downstream procurement is advised to buy in batches at low prices for hedging [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC disk shows a narrow - range oscillation. Maintain a short - term low - buying and high - selling idea, and consider going long on the far - month 08 contract at low prices [2]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel: The blast furnace continues to resume production, and the five major steel products are seasonally destocking. Existing short positions can be gradually stopped for profit. Iron ore: The macro - environment is frequently disturbed, and the height of hot metal resumption is questionable. Try shorting on rebounds. Coke: After the eleventh round of price cuts, it is temporarily stable, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. Do high - short operations. Coking coal: The market auction has improved, and coal mine production has slightly increased, but the inventory is high, and the rebound space is limited. Do high - short operations. Ferrosilicon: Pay attention to the implementation of production cuts and macro - sentiment changes [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The US tariff policy affects the short - term price, and the price fluctuates. The upper resistance is difficult to break through. The main contract reference range is 77,000 - 80,000. Zinc: The price is under pressure due to the US tariff policy. The main contract reference range is 23,000 - 24,000. Stainless steel: After the equal - tariff policy is implemented, the fundamentals change little. The main contract reference range is 126,000 - 134,000. Tin: The raw material support is strong, and the supply - demand game continues [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Affected by the US tariff policy and EIA inventory accumulation, the short - term oil price center has moved down. Suggest short - term waiting and seeing. PX: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but it may be dragged down in the short - term by the US tariff policy. PTA: The supply - demand expectation is good, but it may be affected in the short - term by the US tariff policy. Polyester fiber: Driven by the expectation of production cuts, the processing fee on the disk has a repair drive. Bottle chips: The supply has increased, and the processing fee is under pressure. Ethanol: The supply has further decreased, but it will oscillate in the short - term due to the expectation of polyester production cuts. Styrene: It mainly follows the raw material price fluctuations. Caustic soda: The inventory at all links is not optimistic, and the disk is difficult to rebound effectively. PVC: The supply - demand drive is limited, and the disk trend is relatively tangled. Synthetic rubber: It oscillates as natural rubber is under pressure above and butadiene is firm in the short - term. LLDPE: The spot market changes little, and the upstream continues to destock. PP: The supply decreases and the demand increases, and the fundamentals have slightly improved [2]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal: The US soybean planting intention report meets expectations. Pay attention to the boost from biodiesel demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2,800 - 3,000. Live pigs: The disk fluctuates slightly. Pay attention to the weight risk. The support around 13,000 is strong. Corn: The supply volume changes little, and the disk stabilizes and rebounds. It fluctuates in the range of 2,250 - 2,300. Oils: The short - term continuous palm oil may hit 9,500 points. White sugar: It follows the raw sugar price fluctuations. Pay attention to the pressure around 6,200. Cotton: The supply is sufficient, and there is no strong upward drive in the short - term. It oscillates in the range of 13,000 - 14,000. Eggs: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. Reduce short positions and hold near - far month arbitrage. Apples: After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, fruit farmers are reluctant to sell. It may oscillate around 7,700 in the short - term. Jujubes: The market price is relatively stable. It runs around 9,100 in the short - term. Peanuts: The market price oscillates weakly. The main contract runs around 8,100. Soda ash: The daily production has recovered to some extent, and the supply - demand surplus pressure still exists. Adopt a short - selling idea after rebounds [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The production and sales in many regions have strengthened again. Consider going long at low prices for the near - month contract on pullbacks. Rubber: Affected by high - temperature drought in the Yunnan production area, the raw material output slows down, and the rubber price rebounds. Lightly try to go long in the range of 16,000 - 16,500, and continue to hold low - position long positions. Logs: The spot price falls, and the new round of foreign quotation is lowered. The price is under pressure. It oscillates in the range of 810 - 850. Industrial silicon: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures contract reduces positions and falls. The main fluctuation range is about 9,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy Commodities - Polysilicon: The futures contract oscillates strongly. Long positions can be held from the fundamental perspective, but the US tariff increase may increase market volatility. Lithium carbonate: The disk oscillates weakly, and the fundamental pressure still exists. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 72,000 - 76,000 yuan [2].
广发期货日评-2025-04-03
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-04-03 05:53