瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-2025-04-03

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the domestic methanol market mainly declined. In the inland market, the supply shortage in some areas eased, leading to price drops. In the coastal market, due to the weak macro - environment and changes in some coastal olefin plants, market sentiment weakened, and prices fell accordingly [7]. - Recently, the output of restored methanol production capacity in China exceeded that of overhauled and reduced - capacity production, resulting in a slight increase in overall output. Some inland plants were overhauled as scheduled, and with active long - term contract pick - ups, some enterprises' inventories dropped to low levels. This week, the unloading speed of foreign vessels was lower than expected, causing a significant reduction in methanol port inventories. However, as imports may gradually increase, the change in port methanol inventories next week is expected to be limited [7]. - In terms of demand, most enterprise plants have been operating stably recently. The load of enterprises in East China has been slightly adjusted. This week, the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry increased slightly month - on - month. Under the background of low profits, some coastal plants are expected to shut down [7]. - The short - term MA2505 contract may continue to seek support, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Market decline: Inland supply shortage eased, prices declined; coastal market sentiment weakened due to macro - environment and olefin plant changes [7]. - Supply outlook: Output increased slightly; inland inventories decreased, and port inventories decreased significantly this week with limited expected change next week [7]. - Demand outlook: Stable operation of most plants, a slight increase in the operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry, and expected shutdown of some coastal plants due to low profits [7]. - Strategy: Wait and see for the MA2505 contract [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price movement: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a decline of 3.42% [10]. - Spread: As of April 3, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 78 [15]. - Warehouse receipts: As of April 2, there were 7,673 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 985 from last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic prices: As of April 3, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2,592 yuan/ton, a decrease of 103 yuan/ton from last week; in Northwest Inner Mongolia, it was 2,145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and the Northwest was 447.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42.5 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - International prices: As of April 2, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 290 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 15 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12 US dollars/ton from last week [33]. - Basis: As of April 3, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 127.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Coal and gas prices: As of April 2, the market price of Qinhuangdao 5500 - calorie thermal coal was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.02 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.07 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Production and operating rate: As of April 3, China's methanol production was 1,873,995 tons, an increase of 54,650 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 86.21%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00% [44]. - Inventory: As of April 2, the total methanol port inventory in China was 616,100 tons, a decrease of 157,700 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 311,500 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons or 4.95% from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 223,300 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons or 5.43% from the previous period [48]. - Import: In February 2025, China's methanol imports were 561,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.10%. From January to February 2025, the cumulative methanol imports were 1,604,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.52%. As of April 2, the methanol import profit was 60.45 yuan/ton, an increase of 25.5 yuan/ton from last week [51]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Operating rate: As of April 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 87.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04% [54]. - Profit: As of April 3, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 814 yuan/ton, an increase of 305 yuan/ton from last week [57].