策略周报：特朗普关税升级，是开始还是结束？-2025-04-06

Group 1 - The report highlights that on April 2, Trump announced a list of "reciprocal tariffs" affecting over 180 countries, including China, with tariff increases exceeding market expectations [2][9] - In response, China implemented countermeasures, including a 34% tariff on all imports from the US and export controls on certain rare earth materials [3][10] - The report suggests that the tariff situation may be just the beginning, potentially leading to a protracted negotiation phase that could suppress market risk appetite [10][11] Group 2 - The report indicates that the global economic outlook is facing adjustment risks due to the potential escalation of tariff conflicts and retaliatory measures from other countries [10] - It notes that the increase in tariffs on Chinese exports to the US will likely increase export pressure in China during the second quarter [10] - The report recommends increasing allocations to low-volatility and safe-haven assets, such as domestic and foreign bonds, gold, and high-dividend assets, in response to the tariff situation [11] Group 3 - The weekly market review shows that the bond market has started to recover, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping from a high of 1.9% to around 1.8% [12] - The equity market has experienced significant adjustments due to the tariff escalation, leading to decreased trading volume and increased market divergence [12][14] - The report anticipates that the bond market will gradually return to normal, with a focus on medium to long-term and credit bond allocations [13] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that the A-share market should focus on low-valuation high-dividend sectors, tourism-related sectors during the Qingming holiday, and industries less affected by external demand [14] - It suggests that the global equity market will experience increased volatility due to the stronger-than-expected tariffs, which may suppress market risk appetite [14] - The report advises a cautious approach to equity assets in the short term, with a focus on defensive strategies until policy measures can restore market confidence [14]