摩根士丹利：特斯拉与具身人工智能瓶颈

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Tesla Inc, indicating that the stock's total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analyst's industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months [4][33]. Core Insights - The focus of investors has shifted towards the intersection of generative AI and robotics, termed "embodied AI," with a high volume of inquiries regarding investment opportunities in this area [2][6]. - There is a significant interest in Tesla's advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and the potential for cybercab/robotaxi services as the company moves towards deploying autonomous vehicles in urban areas [6][8]. - The report emphasizes that the market for embodied AI extends beyond humanoid robots, encompassing various robotic modalities, including drones and other intelligent machines capable of interacting with their environment [6][8]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Tesla Inc is rated "Overweight" with a price target of $430.00, reflecting a close price of $428.22 as of January 15, 2025 [4]. Market Trends - The report notes a projected 10-15% volume growth in FY25 for Tesla, alongside expectations of a 15% gross auto margin for Q4 [6]. - Investors are particularly focused on tangible progress in Tesla's FSD technology and the deployment of its humanoid robot, Optimus [6][8]. Supply Chain Considerations - The report highlights a "robotic hardware bottleneck," indicating that many components necessary for robotics are sourced from various countries, predominantly China, raising concerns about supply chain resiliency [8]. - As AI technology integrates into physical applications, the demand for reliable supply chains for robotic components is expected to grow, positioning Tesla as a key player in next-generation manufacturing [8]. Total Addressable Market (TAM) - The report suggests that Tesla's total addressable market is likely to expand significantly, with many sectors not yet reflected in current financial models [8]. - The estimated total ex-software/labor bill of materials (BoM) for Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot is projected to be between $50,000 and $60,000 per unit [9].