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花旗-宏观-如何赢得贸易战及对抗通胀之战-3
2025-04-06 14:36

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strong emphasis on implementing high tariffs as a strategy to achieve trade balance and reduce fiscal deficits, indicating a positive outlook for the USD and yen in the context of these tariffs [17][41]. Core Insights - The report outlines various tariff scenarios aimed at eliminating the trade deficit, with a focus on achieving a minimum 30% share of bilateral trade for the US [6][9]. - It emphasizes the need for substantial tariffs to prevent trading partners from devaluing their currencies to counteract the tariffs, which would undermine the intended effects [8][41]. - The analysis indicates that scenarios with tariffs below 25% are considered sub-optimal, as they fail to meet key objectives and leave significant trade deficits [34][38]. Summary by Sections Tariff Scenarios - Scenario 1 proposes 45% tariffs globally and 70% on China, potentially raising $1.4 trillion and eliminating trade deficits with major partners [10][12]. - Scenario 2 suggests 70% tariffs on China and 45% on the EU, raising approximately $1 trillion, leaving a trade deficit of $250 billion [18][20]. - Scenario 3 involves 70% tariffs on China and 25% on the rest of the world, raising $900 billion but leaving a trade deficit of over $400 billion [24][27]. - Scenario 4 proposes 25% tariffs across the board, raising $709 billion but still resulting in a $600 billion trade deficit [32][34]. - Scenarios with tariffs below 25% are deemed ineffective, with a 15% tariff scenario raising only $425 billion and leaving an $884 billion trade deficit [37][38]. Objectives of Tariffs - The report identifies six key objectives for the US in the trade war, including rebalancing trade, reducing the fiscal deficit, and ensuring tariffs are substantial enough to prevent currency devaluation by trading partners [6][9][41]. - It stresses that achieving a US share of at least 50% in bilateral trade is crucial, with any scenario falling below 30% being unacceptable [41].