大越期货沥青期货周报-2025-04-07

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 06 contract showed a downward trend. The opening price on Monday was 3,617 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 3,610 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.19%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, supply will decrease, cost support will weaken, and the market may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The 06 contract declined this week, opening at 3,617 yuan/ton on Monday and closing at 3,610 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 0.19% [5]. - Supply - Side: In December, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.33 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 33.6311%, a 1.35 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national sample enterprise shipment was 244,000 tons, a 0.87% increase, and the sample enterprise output was 448,000 tons, a 3.86% decrease. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 845,000 tons, a 3.30% increase. Refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [5]. - Demand - Side: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 25.7%, a 0.04 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the construction asphalt开工率 was 8.3%, unchanged; the modified asphalt开工率 was 5.2122%, a 1.18 - percentage - point increase; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 19%, unchanged; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 30%, a 2.00 - percentage - point increase. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - Cost - Side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 780.77 yuan/ton, a 1.40% increase from the previous week. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 880.1671 yuan/ton, a 1.28% decrease. Asphalt processing losses increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [6]. - Inventory - Side: The social inventory was 1.341 million tons, a 4.52% increase; the in - plant inventory was 844,000 tons, a 7.55% decrease; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 160,000 tons, a 33.33% increase. Social inventory continued to accumulate, in - plant inventory continued to deplete, and port inventory continued to accumulate [6]. 2. Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Base - Price Trend: The report presents the base - price trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions, with data from 2020 - 2025 [9][10]. - Spread Analysis: - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 - 2025 [14][15]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025 are presented [17][18]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 - 2025 are shown [20][21][22]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio: The price - ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 are provided [24][25]. 3. Asphalt Spot Market Analysis The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong regions from 2020 - 2025 [27][28]. 4. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: The asphalt profit trends from 2019 - 2025 are presented [30][31]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread: The profit - spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025 are shown [33][34][35]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: The weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 are presented [36][37]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 - 2025 are shown [38][39]. - Production Volume: The weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 are presented [41][42]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production: The price trends of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 are shown [45][47]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 - 2025 are presented [48][49]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The weekly capacity utilization rate trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 are shown [51][52]. - Maintenance Loss Estimate: The maintenance - loss estimate trends from 2018 - 2025 are presented [54][55]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipt: The exchange warehouse - receipt trends from 2019 - 2025 are presented [57][58][59]. - Social and In - Plant Inventory: The social and in - plant inventory trends of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 are shown [62][63]. - In - Plant Inventory Ratio: The in - plant inventory - ratio trends from 2018 - 2025 are presented [65][66]. - Import - Export Analysis: - Export and Import Trends: The asphalt export and import trends from 2019 - 2025 are presented [68][69]. - South Korean Asphalt Import Price Spread: The price - spread trends of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 - 2025 are shown [72][73]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: The petroleum coke production trends from 2019 - 2025 are presented [74][75]. - Apparent Consumption: The apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 are shown [77][78]. - Downstream Demand: - Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment: The highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment trends from 2020 - 2025 are presented [80][81]. - New Local Special - Purpose Bonds and Infrastructure Investment: The new local special - purpose bond trends and infrastructure investment completion - amount year - on - year trends are shown [83]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working - hour trends of excavators, and the sales trends of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2019 - 2025 are presented [84][85][87]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: The heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2019 - 2025 are presented [89][90]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use: The construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2019 - 2025 are shown [92][93]. - Downstream Capacity Utilization: - Shoe - Material SBS - Modified Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: The shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2019 - 2025 are presented [95][96]. - Road - Modified Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: The road - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2019 - 2025 are shown [95][96]. - Waterproofing Membrane Modified Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: The waterproofing membrane modified asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2019 - 2025 are presented [97][98]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from April 2025 to April 2024 is presented, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [100][101]. 5. Technical Analysis This week, the main 06 contract showed a downward trend. The report presents the price, trading volume, and moving - average trends of the BU main contract from March 7 to April 3, 2025, and expects a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [104][105].