中美关税战战升级，菜粕短期震荡回升

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term, affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes. With the influence of soybean meal, the price of rapeseed meal will maintain a fluctuating and slightly strong pattern [8]. - The short - term supply and demand of rapeseed meal are both weak, lacking its own driving force. The subsequent trend needs further guidance from policies and soybean meal [41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Prompt - Not explicitly presented in the given content. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is still in the off - season, and the spot market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand [10]. - The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, supporting the overseas futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [10]. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected Canadian rapeseed production [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, which still supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [11]. - Bearish Factors: The expected increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed in April; uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [11]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [16][18]. - Arrival and Inventory: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in April was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated and rebounded. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, while the inventory of rapeseed meal rebounded from a low level. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remained low [19][21][23]. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable. Rapeseed meal was in a weak and fluctuating state, and the spot price followed the fluctuations, with the basis remaining near par [31][33]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed in, showing a bearish signal [8]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal fluctuated and rebounded. The KDJ indicator crossed and rebounded at a low level, and the MACD was in a low - level fluctuation with the green energy narrowing, indicating a short - term end of the adjustment trend [41]. 3.7 Next Week's Focus - Most Important: Weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas; Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand; the arrival and startup of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [44]. - Second - most Important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand; domestic oil mill rapeseed meal inventory and downstream procurement [45]. - Less Important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45]. 4. Trading Strategies - Futures: In the short term, it will fluctuate slightly stronger. For the RM2505 contract, it will fluctuate above 2600 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended, and the main operation is range - bound trading [12]. - Options: Wait and see for the 05 contract [13].