广发期货原木期货日报-2025-04-07

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The log spot price continues to decline, the new round of FOB quotes is lowered, there is still supply pressure in April, and demand support is insufficient. The current futures price is at a neutral - low level with strong cost support, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of [810 - 850]. Meanwhile, the tariff upgrade during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival has led to weak macro sentiment, and market sentiment disturbances should be watched out for [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Price Changes: On April 3, compared with April 2, the price of log 2507 increased by 1.0 yuan to 829.0 yuan, with a 0.12% increase; log 2509 decreased by 3.0 yuan to 840.0 yuan, a - 0.36% decrease; log 2511 decreased by 3.5 yuan to 845.5 yuan, a - 0.41% decrease [2]. - Spread and Basis Changes: The 7 - 9 spread increased by 4.0 to - 11.0; the 9 - 11 spread increased by 0.5 to - 5.5; the 7 - 11 spread increased by 4.5 to - 16.5. The 07 contract basis decreased by 1.0 to - 49.0; the 09 contract basis increased by 3.0 to - 60.0; the 11 contract basis increased by 3.5 to - 65.5 [2]. - Spot Price Changes: Spot prices at ports such as Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on April 3 compared with April 2. The FOB price of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A decreased by 6 dollars to 115 dollars per JAS cubic meter, a - 4.96% decrease, while the FOB price of spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged at 120 euros per JAS cubic meter [2]. - Cost Changes: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.03 to 7.306 yuan, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 38.64 yuan to 825.35 yuan, a - 4% decrease [2]. Supply - Monthly Supply: As of February 28, port freight volume increased by 66.8 million cubic meters to 197.9 million cubic meters compared with December 31, a 50.98% increase. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 9 to 58, an 18.37% increase [2]. Inventory - Weekly Inventory: As of March 28, the log inventory in major ports in China was 360 million cubic meters, a decrease of 4 million cubic meters compared with March 21, a - 1.10% decrease. In Shandong, it was 189.8 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.5 million cubic meters, a - 1.30% decrease; in Jiangsu, it was 128.45 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.0 million cubic meters, a - 2.30% decrease [2][3]. Demand - Weekly Demand: As of March 28, the average daily log outbound volume in China was 6.7 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.28 million cubic meters compared with March 21, a 4% increase. In Shandong, it was 3.30 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.08 million cubic meters, a - 2% decrease; in Jiangsu, it was 2.76 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.35 million cubic meters, a 15% increase [3].