《黑色》日报-2025-04-07

Report on the Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions and market sentiment transmission, steel prices are expected to open lower today. It is recommended to avoid long positions or use options for protection, hold short positions, be cautious about short - chasing in futures, and look for opportunities for a rebound after the market sentiment stabilizes [1]. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Threaded Steel: Spot prices in East, North, and South China generally decreased, with drops of 10 yuan/ton in most regions. Futures contract prices also declined, with the 10 - contract dropping by 16 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coils: Spot and futures prices both decreased. Futures contract prices dropped by 15 - 26 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Cost: Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while plate billet prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace threaded steel increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter threaded steel decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - Profit: Profits of various regions and varieties generally increased, with increases ranging from 3 - 13 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - Production: The daily average pig - iron output increased by 1.4 tons to 238.7 tons, a 0.6% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 3.0 tons to 872.5 tons, a 0.3% increase [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 47.7 tons to 1690.1 tons, a 2.7% decrease. The inventory of threaded steel decreased by 21.0 tons to 798.1 tons, a 2.6% decrease [1]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Due to the escalation of Sino - US trade conflicts, iron ore prices are under short - term pressure. Although the fundamentals show a slight increase in pig - iron production, the demand sustainability needs attention, and the supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to exit long positions in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - Warehouse Receipt Costs: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly, with drops of 0.3 - 0.5% [3]. - Spreads: The 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 spreads increased by 2.3%, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2.3% [3]. Supply and Demand - Supply: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 267.0 tons to 2243.6 tons, a 10.6% decrease. The global shipping volume increased by 103.1 tons to 3187.8 tons, a 3.3% increase [3]. - Demand: The weekly average daily pig - iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.4 tons to 238.7 tons, a 0.6% increase. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 4.4 tons to 317.6 tons, a 1.4% increase [3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 103.0 tons to 14468.41 tons, a 0.7% decrease. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 61.3 tons to 9171.7 tons, a 0.7% increase [3]. Report on the Coke Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The coke spot market has slightly improved, but the futures market has over - anticipated. Due to the high inventory and the macro - negative impact of the US tariff increase, it is recommended to short at high levels in the short term and for industrial customers to hedge [5]. Summary by Directory Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Spot Prices: The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke remained unchanged [5]. - Futures Contracts: The 05 and 09 contracts of coke decreased by 0.5% and 0.8% respectively [5]. Supply and Demand - Supply: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.7 tons to 64.8 tons, a 1.1% increase [5]. - Demand: The daily average pig - iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.4 tons to 238.7 tons, a 0.6% increase [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 5.8 tons to 1007.5 tons, a 0.6% decrease. Coking plants continued to reduce inventory, while steel mills increased inventory [5]. Report on the Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The coking coal spot market has shown marginal improvement, but the inventory is still high. Due to the impact of imported coal and the macro - negative impact of the US tariff increase, it is recommended to short at high levels in the short term and for industrial customers to hedge [5]. Summary by Directory Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Spot Prices: The price of coking coal from Shanxi warehouse receipts remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian coking coal warehouse receipts decreased by 15 yuan/ton, a 1.4% decrease [5]. - Futures Contracts: The 05 and 09 contracts of coking coal decreased by 0.0% and 0.1% respectively [5]. Supply and Demand - Supply: The production of domestic coal mines continued to resume, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal increased [5]. - Demand: Coking production increased, and downstream users replenished their stocks faster [5]. Inventory - The total coking coal inventory increased. Upstream mines continued to reduce inventory, while coking plants, steel mills, and some ports increased inventory [5]. Report on the Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View - Ferrosilicon: Due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, the short - term price is affected by market sentiment. Supply has decreased, and demand sustainability needs attention. The export pressure has increased [7]. - Ferromanganese: The manganese ore market remains in a balanced supply - demand pattern. The short - term price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market sentiment is pessimistic [7]. Summary by Directory Ferrosilicon - Prices: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 26 yuan/ton to 5986 yuan/ton, a 0.4% increase. The spot price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 30 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decrease [7]. - Supply and Demand: The weekly output of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the demand remained stable [7]. Ferromanganese - Prices: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 6150 yuan/ton, a 0.1% increase. The spot price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease [7]. - Supply and Demand: The weekly output of ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the demand remained stable. The manganese ore market maintained a balanced supply - demand pattern [7].