瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-2025-04-07

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic industry has been significantly sanctioned before 2023, with a substantial reduction in export volume. Subsequently, it is indirectly affected, and the market sentiment may fluctuate in the short term. The leading companies such as Tongwei Co., Ltd. have announced phased production cuts and maintenance, and the industry's self - disciplined production limitation is ongoing, but the overall production cut intensity is not obvious. On the demand side, currently it is the peak consumption season for the domestic photovoltaic industry. The demand for distributed installation has driven the price increase and inventory reduction of downstream products in the photovoltaic industry chain. However, due to the high inventory of polysilicon, the inventory clearance speed is relatively slow. The polysilicon price is stable today, and there is a stalemate in price negotiation during the order - signing period. It is recommended to take a light - short position in the polysilicon main contract during the day, and a light - short position can be attempted near 43,700, with a stop - loss price of 44,000. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The main contract closing price of polysilicon is 43,265 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 33,190 lots, up 1,788 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of polysilicon is 680 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 33,715 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 42,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 33.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 34 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of polysilicon is - 1,265 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.98 US dollars/kg, down 0.03 US dollars/kg [2] Upstream Situation - The main contract closing price of industrial silicon is 9,550 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 10,650 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 289,350 tons, down 16,450 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 608,000 tons, up 4,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 90,000 tons, down 22,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 3,128 tons, up 812 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.29 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6.7001 million kilowatts, down 113,700 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 71,334,590 pieces, down 24,503,790 pieces; the monthly import volume is 11,968,380 pieces, up 4,161,000 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.26 US dollars/piece, down 0.01 US dollars/piece. The comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 23.53, unchanged [2] Industry News - Since 2012, the US has imposed high anti - dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese photovoltaic products. With the 201 and 301 tariffs, the comprehensive tax rate has exceeded 100%. Direct exports of Chinese photovoltaic products to the US are rare. In April 2025, the US announced a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on all trading partners and higher tariffs on multiple countries including China. The macro - situation shows that the US government's full - scale tariff collection with China at the top with 34% and China's counter - measures have little direct impact on the Chinese photovoltaic industry chain [2]