国信（香港）基金周报：对等关税超预期冲击全球股市，资金流向避险资产-2025-04-07

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the unexpected impact of the reciprocal tariff policy announced by the Trump administration, which imposes a 10% base tariff on 185 countries and regions, with higher rates for major trading partners, reaching up to 49% [7][10] - Following the tariff announcement, China quickly retaliated with a 34% tariff on all imports from the U.S., and other countries like Canada and the EU are preparing similar measures [7][10] - The U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with major indices recording their largest single-day drops since 2020, indicating heightened market volatility and investor panic [10][11] Group 2: Market Performance - The report provides a detailed performance overview of various global assets, noting that the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.98% year-to-date, while the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields decreased by 6.64% and 6.00% respectively [2] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and the U.S. Nasdaq 100 Index saw declines of 2.46% and 9.77% respectively, reflecting a broader trend of falling stock prices across major markets [2][11] - The report indicates that the S&P 500 index typically declines by about 25% during economic recessions, suggesting that the current market cycle may not have reached its low point yet [11] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the impact of the tariff policy may lead to increased volatility, recommending a cautious approach towards global equity assets in the short term [12] - It highlights that the U.S. dollar may be favored as a safe-haven asset, with expectations of delayed interest rate cuts, which could strengthen the dollar against the yuan [12] - Investors are advised to consider U.S. Treasury bonds and bond-related assets, as they are likely to benefit from the current economic climate and the anticipated rise in inflation [12]