Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Ascentage Pharma [2][21]. Core Insights - Ascentage Pharma achieved a revenue of RMB 980 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 343%, which includes a $100 million option payment from Takeda. The company reported a net loss of RMB 410 million, narrowing by 56.2% year-on-year [3][17]. - The domestic revenue performance of HQP1351 was strong, reaching RMB 240 million, with a significant increase in H2 revenue driven by improved penetration in pharmacies and hospitals [4][18]. - The company completed its U.S. IPO in 2025, raising RMB 967 million, which alleviated cash needs [3][20]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25-27 are RMB 5.7 billion, RMB 29.9 billion, and RMB 28.0 billion, respectively. Corresponding net profits are projected at RMB -8.4 billion, RMB 12.5 billion, and RMB 9.1 billion [8][21]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain high, with estimates of 90.1% in FY25 and 98.1% in FY26 [8][14]. - The company’s cash and deposit balance was RMB 1.26 billion at the end of 2024, reflecting a 15.3% increase year-on-year [3][17]. R&D Progress - Ongoing Phase III trials include POLARIS-2 for pretreated CML-CP and POLARIS-3 for SDH-GIST, with plans to submit a Phase III application to the U.S. FDA for POLARIS-1 [5][23]. - The NDA for APG-2575 for R/R CLL/SLL has been accepted by the CDE, with multiple Phase III trials ongoing for various indications [5][23]. Valuation - The target price for Ascentage Pharma is set at HKD 53.1 per share, based on a risk-adjusted discounted cash flow (DCF) model with a WACC of 10.0% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0% [8][21].
亚盛医药-B：国内商业化表现稳健，全球化创新进入加速期-20250407