贵金属日评-2025-04-08

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Report - Date: April 8, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Finance Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The mid - line upward trend of gold remains good, and after short - term fluctuations end, investors can enter the market to go long. Due to industrial demand pressure, silver is relatively weak. It is recommended that investors mainly go long at low prices with medium positions, avoid chasing highs and shorting [4][5]. Content Summary by Section Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump's reciprocal tariff rate far exceeded market expectations but exempted gold and silver. China implemented strong counter - measures immediately, and the EU and Canada also firmly opposed. Global trade system changes caused financial market fluctuations. Cross - border funds flowed back to the US, pushing up the US dollar exchange rate. Liquidity risks hit global stocks and commodities including precious metals. Silver fell more than gold due to industrial demand concerns. On April 7, Asian session, London gold found initial support around $2970/ounce and rebounded above $3000/ounce. The depreciation of the RMB made the decline of domestic gold and silver relatively smaller [4]. Domestic Precious Metals Market Conditions | Contract | Pre - closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 740.15 | 729.05 | 702.85 | 718.82 | - 2.88 | 365,535 | - 23,578 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,313 | 7,844 | 7,554 | 7,647 | - 8.00 | 856,507 | - 33,756 | | Gold T + D | 738.97 | 726.03 | 700.25 | 715.15 | - 3.22 | 200,084 | 14,906 | | Silver T + D | 8,263 | 7,805 | 7,346 | 7,616 | - 7.83 | 4,112,944 | 238,532 | [5] Mid - line Market - After the hawkish interest rate cut by the Fed on December 18, 2024, gold prices started a new round of rise due to factors such as festival consumption expectations in China and India,避险 demand caused by Trump's 2.0 new policy uncertainties, rising short - term stagflation risks in the US economy, weakening of the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields, and increasing expectations of Fed interest rate cuts. On February 24, London gold set a new record of $2956/ounce. At the end of February, it corrected to $2832/ounce and found support near the lower track of the medium - term bull market channel since March 2024. In March, due to factors like rising US economic recession risks, the Fed slowing down the pace of balance sheet reduction, geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe and the Middle East heating up again, and Trump's tariff weaponization gradually taking effect, London gold rose again and broke through the $3000/ounce mark on March 17. Since late March, the upward momentum of gold prices has weakened but remained above $3000/ounce [5]. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - China imposed a 34% tariff on all US products and introduced a series of measures including export control of some rare earths. The EU will seek a unified front against Trump's tariff measures, which may lead to an early escalation of the global trade war [16]. - Thousands of protesters gathered in Washington and across the US, part of about 1200 demonstration activities, expected to be the largest single - day protest since Trump and Musk's efforts to reform the government and expand presidential power [16]. - Fed Chairman Powell said that the scale of Trump's new tariffs was larger than expected, and the economic impact including inflation and slowdown in economic growth might also be greater. He said it was too early to know the Fed's response and that the Fed had time to wait for more data [16]. - The US added 228,000 non - farm jobs in March, far exceeding expectations. However, Trump's comprehensive import tariffs may weaken the resilience of the labor market in the coming months. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the average hourly wage increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year [17].