碳酸锂期货日报-2025-04-08

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: April 8, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The carbonated lithium futures decreased with reduced positions, and the risk - asset selling spread to the carbonate lithium market. The futures price has broken the cost price, but the cost - side support is gradually emerging. Attention should be paid to the support around 70,000 yuan for carbonate lithium futures [6] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures decreased with reduced positions. The main contract once dropped to 70,000 yuan in the morning, breaking the cost support line of lithium mica. The daily closing price fluctuated between 71,000 - 72,000 yuan, and the total positions decreased to 340,000 lots [6] - The spot price of electric - grade carbonate lithium decreased by 1,300 yuan to 72,600 yuan, and industrial - grade carbonate lithium decreased by 1,300 yuan to 70,650 yuan. The spot price remained at a premium compared to the main contract. Upstream lithium salt producers continued to hold firm on prices, and downstream material producers mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude [6] - The price of high - grade lithium spodumene ore decreased by 40 yuan to 5,575 yuan/ton, and the price of high - grade lithium mica ore decreased by 15 yuan to 1,725 yuan/ton. The prices of downstream cathode materials also decreased, and the price reduction in the industrial chain was smoothly transmitted downstream [6] - The spot price of carbonate lithium is approaching last year's lowest point, and the futures price has broken the cost price. Although macro - risks are still difficult to eliminate, the cost - side support is gradually emerging. Attention should be paid to the support around 70,000 yuan for carbonate lithium futures [6] Group 5: Industry News - In March 2025, Chile's lithium export volume was 22,976 tons, of which the carbonate lithium export volume was 20,227 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38.5%. The export volume of carbonate lithium to China was 16,594 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38%. Considering the shipping cycle, it is expected to arrive at Chinese ports from April to May. The domestic carbonate lithium production has declined from its peak, and the overseas imports have provided some supplementation, but the supply pressure remains high [7] - Kodal Minerals' Bougouni lithium project in southern Mali is close to completion, and commercial production is about to start. The DMS processing plant has produced more than 11,000 tons of lithium spodumene concentrate, and production operations are gradually increasing [7][8] - BYD's market value has exceeded CATL's, regaining the top position in the Shenzhen stock market. However, according to the 2024 annual report of public funds, CATL has surpassed Kweichow Moutai to become the most - held stock by public funds, while the number of funds holding BYD is only half of that of CATL, and the total market value of shares held is less than a quarter of CATL's [8]