沪镍、不锈钢早报-2025-04-08

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The outer market fluctuates greatly, with a rebound after a decline. Tariff sentiment remains the short - term key. In the stainless - steel industry chain, nickel ore and nickel iron prices are still firm, and the overall cost line continues to rise steadily. Stainless - steel inventory decreases slightly. In the new energy sector, the automobile production and sales data in February are good, which has a positive impact on the new energy industry chain. In the long - term, the surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged. In the short - term, the cost support below is also very important. The conclusion is that Shanghai Nickel 2505 will operate in a weak and volatile manner. Attention should be paid to whether it can return to the cost line [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot stainless - steel price drops. In the short - term, the nickel ore price is strong, and the Indonesian ore is still in short supply. The nickel iron price rises steadily, and the cost line remains firm and continues to move up. The stainless - steel inventory decreases. The conclusion is that Stainless Steel 2505 will operate in a weak and volatile manner [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Overview - Nickel: On April 7, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 118,640, down 8,690 from April 3; the LME Nickel was 14,440, down 205 from April 4. The SMM1 electrolytic nickel spot was 122,600, down 6,500 from April 3; the 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124,050, down 6,000 from April 3; the 1 imported nickel was 121,350, down 6,900 from April 3; the nickel bean was 120,700, down 7,000 from April 3 [10]. - Stainless Steel: On April 7, the stainless - steel main contract was 12,910, down 520 from April 3. The cold - rolled 304*2B stainless - steel in Wuxi was 13,950, down 200 from April 3; in Foshan was 14,050, down 100 from April 3; in Hangzhou was 14,000, down 200 from April 3; in Shanghai was 14,100, down 200 from April 3 [10]. Inventory - Nickel: As of April 7, the LME nickel inventory was 202,308, an increase of 2,058 from April 3; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipt was 27,166, a decrease of 205 from April 3. The total inventory was 229,474, an increase of 1,853 from April 3 [13]. - Stainless Steel: On April 3, the Wuxi stainless - steel inventory was 658,400 tons, the Foshan inventory was 339,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1,087,500 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous period. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 73,260 tons, a decrease of 7,600 tons from the previous period. As of April 7, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt was 202,260, an increase of 182 from April 3 [17][18]. Price of Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron - Nickel Ore: On April 7, the CIF price of red - clay nickel ore with Ni1.5% was 58 US dollars per wet ton, down 0.5 from April 3; the CIF price of red - clay nickel ore with Ni0.9% was 31.5 US dollars per wet ton, down 0.5 from April 3. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 9.75 US dollars per ton, down 1 from April 3; the sea freight from the Philippines to Tianjin Port was 10.5 US dollars per ton, down 1.25 from April 3 [20]. - Nickel Iron: On April 7, the price of high - nickel iron was 1,022 yuan per nickel point, down 8.5 from April 3; the price of low - nickel iron was 3,600 yuan per ton, down 100 from April 3 [20]. Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 13,659; the production cost using scrap steel was 13,927; the production cost using low - nickel iron and pure nickel was 16,833 [22]. Nickel Import Cost - The calculated import price of nickel was 117,441 yuan per ton [25].