建信期货铝日报-2025-04-08

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoint - Affected by US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures during the holiday, global risk assets tumbled, and domestic non - ferrous metals opened almost limit - down. However, supported by fundamentals, Shanghai aluminum rebounded. The trading logic has shifted from re - inflation to concerns about global economic slowdown or recession. Although the aluminum fundamentals are fair, due to the escalation of the tariff war and economic uncertainties, short - term operations should be cautious [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai aluminum's main contract 2505 opened at 19,000 yuan/ton, then rebounded, with the highest intraday reaching 19,905 yuan/ton and closing at 19,685 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.67%. The total index positions increased by 1,486 to 487,716 lots. The spot market was cautious, with different premiums and discounts in different regions. The import loss narrowed to about - 1,300 yuan/ton. Alumina followed the decline but was relatively resilient. Considering the tariff war and economic uncertainties, short - term operations need to be cautious [8] 2. Industry News - India imposed anti - dumping duties of 479 - 721 US dollars/ton on Chinese aluminum foil no thicker than 80 microns for 5 years, with some products excluded [9][10] - Rio Tinto postponed the restart of Tiwai Point aluminum smelter until August 31 to ensure 50MW of winter power supply. The plant's installed capacity is 365,000 tons, and the current restart progress is about 70% [10] - Hydro will invest 1.56 billion US dollars to build a new wire casting workshop with an annual output of 110,000 tons at its Karmøy aluminum plant, scheduled to be put into operation in Q1 2028, responding to the demand for low - carbon aluminum wires in European energy infrastructure [10]