花旗：中美关税战--相当于“古巴导弹危机”的金融版！

Investment Rating - The report suggests a negative outlook on the trade dynamics between the US and China, indicating that the current situation could escalate into a financial crisis akin to the Cuban Missile Crisis [22][24][38]. Core Insights - The US aims to eliminate the trade deficit and may raise tariffs on Chinese imports from 54% to 79%, potentially generating an additional $107.4 billion in tariffs [4][44]. - China is expected to retaliate, and the report discusses the implications of such actions on both economies, highlighting that the US could raise $446.7 billion from tariffs on Chinese imports, significantly more than the $47.5 billion China would collect from US imports [6][47]. - The report emphasizes the strategic game theory aspect of the trade war, suggesting that both nations are engaged in a high-stakes negotiation that could have severe economic consequences [11][19][22]. Summary by Sections Tariff Dynamics - China announced a 34% tariff on all US imports, which the report views as a miscalculation in the trade war context [2][40]. - The US has imposed a 34% tariff on all Chinese imports, in addition to a 20% tariff on fentanyl [3][41]. - The report anticipates that the US may further increase tariffs, potentially leading to a total of $339.4 billion in tariffs from China [44]. Economic Impact - The 54% tariff is projected to negatively impact Chinese GDP growth by -2.4%, while a 79% tariff could lead to a decline of over 3% [48]. - The report notes that the total tariffs raised from all trading partners could exceed $934.2 billion, significantly affecting the US fiscal debt to GDP ratio [47]. Strategic Considerations - The report discusses the potential for China to leverage systemic risk to force the US to negotiate, suggesting that the stakes are higher than just trade [19][22]. - It posits that the optimal strategy for China would be to abolish retaliatory tariffs and engage in cooperative negotiations with the US [14][15]. - The report highlights the importance of patience in negotiations, indicating that both countries need to recognize the costs of continued conflict [33][69].