Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Methanol: Iran's methanol shipments are low, and there is not enough time until the 05 contract. It is currently expected that inventory will decline to a seasonal low by the end of April. Be vigilant if Iran's subsequent shipments still fall short of expectations. Assuming normal imports and Shenghong's shutdown in May, inventory will accumulate. However, the low inventory at the end of April will still influence trading. If there is an unexpected supply gap in the 05 contract, the low - inventory situation will continue, providing a safety margin for long positions [1]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is at a neutral level compared to the same period. Upstream inventory increased during the holiday, and coal - chemical inventory also rose. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 05 contract basis is +300 in North China and +300 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 400, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production increased month - on - month in February. Pay attention to US price quotes and the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [1]. - PP (Polypropylene): The upstream inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina and the mid - stream inventory increased during the holiday. In terms of valuation, the basis is +10, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. There are no reports of large - scale export transactions. The non - standard price differential is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. PDH profit is around - 600, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The draw production ratio is neutral. There are few known maintenance plans in the future, and supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, with neutral raw material inventory and slightly high finished - product inventory. Under the background of over - capacity, the 05 contract is expected to face significant pressure. To relieve the pressure, there needs to be a significant increase in exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million tons of PDH plants [1]. - PVC: The basis has strengthened to 05 - 230, and the factory - pickup basis is - 430. Downstream operations are seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventory has started to decline. With concentrated spring maintenance, the operating rate is expected to reach 75% temporarily. In the second quarter, pay attention to the scale of spring maintenance after profit compression. Export orders are fair. The macro - policies in March did not exceed expectations. Coal prices are stable, the cost of semi - coke is weakening, and it may be difficult for calcium carbide to expand profits as PVC plants undergo maintenance. The FOB price for caustic soda exports is 440. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 300. Currently, the static inventory is at a high level, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [1]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price Data: From March 31 to April 7, the price of power coal futures remained at 801, while the Jiangsu spot price dropped from 2612 to 2505, and the daily change on April 7 was - 75. Other regional spot prices also showed varying degrees of decline. The CFR China price remained at 283 on April 7, with a daily change of 0. The import profit was 116, and the daily change was 0. The main - contract basis was 95, with a daily change of 10, and the MTO profit on the futures market was - 1031, with a daily change of 83 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From March 31 to April 7, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene dropped from 855 to 845, with a daily change of - 10. The price of North China LL dropped from 7700 to 7550, with a daily change of - 150. The main - contract futures price dropped from 7669 to 7320, with a daily change of - 370. The basis was 100, with a daily change of 70. The two - oil inventory remained at 76, and the number of warehouse receipts was 450, with no daily change [1]. PP (Polypropylene) - Price Data: From March 31 to April 7, the price of Shandong propylene dropped from 6600 to 6600 (with a decline during the period), and the daily change on April 7 was - 150. The price of Northeast Asia propylene dropped from 800 to 790, with a daily change of - 10. The price of East China PP dropped from 7300 to 7255, with a daily change of - 80. The main - contract futures price dropped from 7313 to 7197, with a daily change of - 151. The basis was 30, with a daily change of 50. The two - oil inventory remained at 76, and the number of warehouse receipts was 1950, with no daily change [1]. PVC - Price Data: From March 31 to April 7, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2700, and the price of Shandong caustic soda dropped from 897 to 856, with a daily change of - 20. The price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China dropped from 4980 to 4900, with a daily change of - 110. The basis of high - end deliverable products was - 120, with a daily change of 40 [1].
甲醇聚烯烃早报-2025-04-08
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-04-08 09:27