建信期货铜期货日报-20250409
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-04-09 01:47
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are weakly influenced by the Sino-US trade tension, but the short - term selling sentiment has slightly eased. The potential upside of the US copper tariff still has room for imagination. It is expected that the short - term copper price will fluctuate greatly, and it is advisable to be cautious about bottom - fishing [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - The main contract of Shanghai copper decreased with increasing positions, hitting a new low since last September. The Shanghai - London ratio has dropped to 8.38, and the import window has closed. The internal - external price difference caused by the daily limit has returned to normal. The downstream transactions were active, and it is expected that the inventory will be reduced at an accelerated pace. The COMEX - LME premium has dropped to 690. Under the dual influence of the Sino - US trade conflict and the potential upside of the US copper tariff, the short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate greatly [8] 3.2. Industry News - Ontario will provide about CAD 11 billion (USD 77 billion) in relief to workers and enterprises, including a six - month deferral of corporate taxes (including mining taxes) and a USD 2 billion tax refund for safety employers [9] - Ivanhoe Mines announced that due to a significant increase in imported hydropower supply, the Kamoa - Kakula project has reached a major turning point, and the on - site copper smelter has been launched. The copper production in the first quarter was close to a record of 133,120 tons, and the quarterly output is expected to continue to increase [9] - Codelco's copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was slightly higher than the same period last year. Despite the power outage in February, it still maintained its annual production target of 1.37 - 1.4 million tons, aiming for a second consecutive year of production growth [10]