2025-04-09 05:11Investment Rating - The report rates SG Micro as a "Buy" with a target price of Rmb115, reflecting a positive outlook for the company amid ongoing market dynamics [32][45]. Core Insights - The report identifies China's mature semiconductors, particularly analog, as defensive investments due to the recent 34% retaliatory tariff on US imports, which is expected to enhance local supply and reduce competition from US firms [1][3][14]. - SG Micro is highlighted as the top beneficiary of the tariff, with expectations of improved earnings and market share gains as US competitors face cost disadvantages [5][21]. - The report anticipates that the tariff will accelerate the localization of semiconductor supply in China, benefiting companies like SG Micro, Will Semi, and Maxscend [3][14][21]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The US tariffs have limited direct impact on Chinese semiconductors, as most are shipped to ODM/EMS outside the US and are not subject to tariffs. However, there is an indirect effect on demand due to increased selling prices [2][11]. Company Analysis - SG Micro is projected to expand its market share as the cost advantage of Texas Instruments is eliminated by the tariff. The company is expected to benefit from an ongoing recovery in the analog segment and tariff protection against US competitors [4][5][21]. - Will Semi is also rated as a "Buy," with expectations of strong growth driven by its CMOS Image Sensors (CIS) business, particularly in the automotive sector [48][49]. - Maxscend is rated as a "Sell" due to concerns over rising investment costs and potential profitability pressures despite its leadership in the RFFE market [39][40]. Financial Projections - SG Micro's revenue forecasts for 2024E and 2025E have been adjusted to Rmb3,301 million and Rmb4,188 million respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26% and 27% [22]. - The report indicates that SG Micro's gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 51.3% in 2025, with net profit projected to reach Rmb828 million [22][32]. Valuation - The target price for SG Micro is based on a forward P/E of 65x for 2025E EPS, justified by the anticipated recovery in the analog semiconductor market and reduced foreign competition due to tariffs [45][46].