瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250409

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand, with continuous destocking of domestic inventories. However, the uncertainties caused by short - term global trade disputes, such as reduced demand expectations and economic slowdown, cannot be ignored. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 72,130 yuan/ton, down 1,230 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 8,671.50 US dollars/ton, up 83.50 US dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was 130 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper was 155,202 lots, down 5,752 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 7,349 lots, down 5,677 lots; the LME copper inventory was 213,450 tons, up 3,225 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 225,736 tons (weekly), down 9,560 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 92,900 tons, down 800 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 97,393 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 72,330 yuan/ton, down 1,215 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 72,450 yuan/ton, down 1,225 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 102 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 88 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 200 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was 12 US dollars/ton, down 81 US dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 218.25 million tons (monthly), down 34.88 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 26.40 US dollars/kiloton (weekly), down 2.26 US dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 62,740 yuan/metal ton, down 1,210 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 63,440 yuan/metal ton, down 1,210 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South was 1,150 yuan/ton (weekly), up 50 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the North was 950 yuan/ton (weekly), up 50 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 124.20 million tons (monthly), up 10.90 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 420,000 tons (monthly), unchanged. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons (weekly), up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 51,190 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 62,900 yuan/ton, down 1,050 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Applications - The output of copper products was 227.28 million tons (monthly), up 13.23 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 436.20 billion yuan (monthly), down 5,646.38 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 10,719.74 billion yuan (monthly), down 89,560.48 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,277,402.80 thousand pieces, up 521,990.50 thousand pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 28.85%, up 0.41%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 21.42%, up 0.36%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 27.28%, down 0.0397; the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.25, up 0.0405 [2] Industry News - China issued the "China's Position on Several Issues Regarding China - US Economic and Trade Relations" white paper to clarify facts, explain policies, and oppose unilateralism and protectionism. The US plans to impose an additional 104% tariff due to China's non - cancellation of retaliatory measures. BlackRock believes that US tariff policies have disrupted internal and external expectations and increased the probability of a US recession. Federal Reserve officials have different views on policies and tariff - related inflation risks. Chinese leaders emphasized international cooperation and domestic economic stability, and relevant departments launched policies to support urban renewal and listened to the opinions of private enterprises on the economic situation [2]