甲醇日报-20250410

Report Information - Report Name: Methanol Daily Report [1] - Date: April 10, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Jin, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Li Jie, Feng Zeren [3] - Data Source: Wind, CCB Futures Research and Development Department [5] Market Conditions Futures Market - Methanol weighted contract increased positions and declined, with an increase of 15,166 lots. The 05 main contract decreased positions by 28,280 lots, and the 09 contract increased positions by 37,954 lots. The weighted contract showed a trend of rapid decline and then stopped falling and rebounded, finally closing with a small solid negative line with a long lower shadow, a overall decline of 1.29% [5] - MA2501: Opened at 2340, closed at 2307, high at 2360, low at 2223, down 1.66%, volume 13,148, open interest 23,092, open interest change +5456, speculation degree 0.57 [7] - MA2505: Opened at 2365, closed at 2352, high at 2395, low at 2253, down 0.68%, volume 1,082,918, open interest 495,866, open interest change -28280, speculation degree 2.18 [7] - MA2509: Opened at 2272, closed at 2229, high at 2282, low at 2130, down 1.68%, volume 569,048, open interest 467,493, open interest change +37954, speculation degree 1.22 [7] Spot Market - The average spot transaction price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [5] Inventory - As of April 9, 2025, the domestic methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 314,300 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from the previous period, a rise of 0.88%. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 254,600 tons, an increase of 31,200 tons from the previous period, a rise of 13.98% [5] - The total domestic methanol port inventory was 569,800 tons, a decrease of 46,300 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in the East China region decreased by 51,000 tons, and the inventory in the South China region increased by 4,700 tons. The port inventory has declined for 6 consecutive weeks and is close to the historical low level in the past 4 years [5] Technical Analysis - In the hourly line cycle, the price reached a new low, MACD formed a bottom divergence and was confirmed, and the price stopped falling and rebounded. In the daily line, after the price broke below the previous low of 2286 support level, it quickly pulled back and stood above the 2286 support level. RSI entered the oversold area but was still in the钝化 stage. The short - term is regarded as oscillating weakly [6] Industry News - Zhonghua Business Co., Ltd. was entrusted by Jinfeng Green Energy Chemical (Xing'an League) Co., Ltd. to conduct a public competitive negotiation for the T+EPC general contracting project of the electrolytic water hydrogen production plant (Phase I) of the 2 million - kilowatt wind - power - to - green - hydrogen and 500,000 - ton green methanol demonstration project. The project plans a total investment of 13.665 billion yuan, with a planned wind power scale of 2 million kilowatts, an annual hydrogen production of 92,200 tons, and supporting facilities including 118 - ton hydrogen storage facilities and 160,000 - kilowatt/2 - hour energy storage facilities [12]