大越期货豆粕早报-20250410

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - M2509 Soybean Meal: Trade within the range of 3080 - 3140 intraday. The overall situation is expected to be fluctuating and slightly bullish in the short - term and maintain range - bound fluctuations in the medium - term. Influenced by factors such as the Sino - US tariff war, Brazilian soybean imports, and South American weather [9][10]. - A2505 Soybeans: Trade within the range of 4060 - 4160 intraday. The market is affected by the Sino - US tariff war, South American weather, and domestic and foreign supply and demand, with short - term fluctuations and a bottom - supported situation [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The M2509 soybean meal should be traded within the range of 3080 - 3140 intraday, and the A2505 soybeans should be traded within the range of 4060 - 4160 intraday [9][12]. 3.2 Recent News - The Sino - US tariff war has eased expectations, and the weather in South American soybean - producing areas is still variable. Soybean meal is fluctuating and slightly bullish in the short - term, waiting for further guidance on factors such as Sino - US tariff policies and South American soybean harvest weather [15]. - The US bio - policy agreement supports the short - term US soybean oil market. The arrival of imported soybeans in China will reach a high in April. After the Spring Festival, the domestic soybean inventory is low in the short - term, and the soybean meal inventory is rising. The soybean products are affected by the Sino - US tariff war and show a pattern of strong current situation and weak expectations [15]. - The domestic pig - breeding profit has decreased, leading to low expectations for pig restocking. After the Spring Festival, the demand for soybean meal has decreased, but the tight supply supports the price expectation. Coupled with the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal will maintain a fluctuating and slightly bullish pattern in the short - term [15]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal Bullish Factors: Short - term low arrival of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and variable weather in South American soybean - producing areas [16]. - Soybean Meal Bearish Factors: High arrival of imported soybeans in April, advancing Brazilian soybean harvest, and continuous expectation of a bumper harvest [16]. - Soybean Bullish Factors: High cost of imported US soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expectation of state - reserve soybean procurement supports the domestic soybean price [17]. - Soybean Bearish Factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [17]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: Spot price in East China is 3150, basis is 31, showing a premium over futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 57.91 tons, a 22.58% decrease from last week and a 93.03% increase from the same period last year [10]. - Soybeans: Spot price is 4000, basis is - 74, showing a discount to futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 290.43 tons, a 17.15% increase from last week and a 23.05% decrease from the same period last year [13]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main long positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10]. - Soybeans: The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out [13].