大越期货螺卷早报-20250410

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Spiral Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil Morning Report (2025-4-10) [1] - Analyst: Hu Yuxiu from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Rebar: The overall view on rebar is bearish. Demand is seasonally rising, but inventory is only slightly decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The downstream real estate industry is in a downward cycle. With a bearish outlook on the real estate market and potential cooling demand, a bearish approach is recommended for rb2510 in the range of 3070 - 3150 [2]. - Hot Rolled Coil: The view on hot rolled coil is also bearish. Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, and although demand is better than last year and the historical average, exports are blocked. A bearish approach is recommended for hc2510 in the range of 3150 - 3250 [5]. Group 4: Rebar Analysis Fundamental Factors - Demand: Seasonal demand is rising, but downstream real estate is in a downward cycle, and terminal demand is weak [2]. - Inventory: National inventory in 35 major cities is 590.95 tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [2]. - Base Difference: The spot price of rebar is 3130, and the base difference is 42, which is bullish [2]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main Position: The short position of the main rebar contract is decreasing [2]. Influencing Factors - Positive: Production and inventory are at a low level, and consumption is increasing month - on - month [3]. - Negative: The downstream real estate industry's downward cycle continues, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [3]. Group 5: Hot Rolled Coil Analysis Fundamental Factors - Supply and Demand: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, and demand is better than last year and the historical average, but exports are blocked [5]. - Base Difference: The spot price of hot rolled coil is 3240, and the base difference is 32, which is bullish [5]. - Inventory: National inventory in 33 major cities is 301.09 tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [5]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [5]. - Main Position: The short position of the main hot rolled coil contract is decreasing [5]. Influencing Factors - Positive: Demand remains higher than the same period, and inventory is starting to decrease [6]. - Negative: Inventory is relatively high, and exports are blocked [7].