《农产品》日报-20250410

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: After the release of the negative MPOB report, the futures price is expected to remain in a low - level shock or sideways trend. Exports from Malaysia are expected to improve in mid - to late April, and the futures price will gradually start a new round of shock - rising market, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern [1]. - Soybean oil: The decline in crude oil has dragged down the trend of vegetable oils as biodiesel raw materials, so the CBOT soybean oil remains under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to whether the market can stop falling after the USDA monthly report. In China, the supply - tight pattern is expected to gradually ease with the arrival of a large number of Brazilian soybeans at the end of April and early May [1]. Meal - Soybean meal: Although the US - China trade friction has escalated, the support for the US soybean 05 contract has strengthened after it fell to 969.5 cents. The Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized, and China's soybean arrivals are abundant. The domestic soybean meal inventory is relatively sufficient, and the spot basis is expected to be in a short - term shock - weak pattern [2]. - Rapeseed meal: The future supply of rapeseed is uncertain, and the demand side currently lacks support, so the basis is mainly in a weak adjustment [2]. Corn The spot price of corn shows regional differences. In the short term, the market trading is light, the market center moves down, but the bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited, showing an interval shock. In the long term, factors such as the transfer of grain rights to channels, a significant reduction in imports and substitutes, and the recovery of the breeding end may support the upward movement of corn prices [4]. Pig In the short term, the pig futures market is expected to continue its strong pattern due to the strong trend of feed under the Sino - US tariff logic. In terms of fundamentals, the current supply pressure is limited, the demand recovery is poor, and the price trend is flat. Attention should be paid to the increasing weight, which may lead to a cumulative supply pressure in the future [8][9]. Sugar The raw sugar will fluctuate widely in the range of 17 - 20 cents/pound. The domestic sugar market lacks effective driving factors and follows the raw sugar trend. Although there is a certain increase in domestic production, the lack of foreign sugar sources provides price support. However, due to the increasing industrial inventory at the end of the accumulation period, the upward space of sugar prices is limited, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [14][15]. Cotton The macro - environment has a great impact, and attention should be paid to the changes in tariff policies. Although there is no obvious increase in domestic demand, the low inventory of downstream finished products provides rigid support. The domestic cotton price may run weakly and steadily in the short term [16]. Eggs The supply of eggs is relatively sufficient and increasing, and the downstream digestion speed is average, with a possible slight decrease later. The national egg price is expected to be stable first and then decline this week [19]. 3. Summary by Catalog Oils and Fats - Price Changes: On April 9, compared with April 8, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 0.50% to 7960 yuan; the futures price of Y2509 decreased by 0.57% to 7610 yuan. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 1.41% to 9100 yuan; the futures price of P2505 decreased by 1.94% to 8588 yuan. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil decreased by 1.93% to 9170 yuan; the futures price of OI505 decreased by 1.53% to 9205 yuan [1]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of soybean oil Y2509 increased by 1.16% to 350 yuan; the basis of palm oil P2505 increased by 8.47% to 512 yuan; the basis of rapeseed oil OI505 decreased by 1850.00% to - 35 yuan. There were also corresponding changes in various spreads such as inter - period spreads and bean - palm spreads [1]. Meal - Soybean Meal: The current price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 3180 yuan, with no change. The futures price of M2509 decreased by 1.42% to 3119 yuan. The spot basis quote in Guangdong changed from m2505 + 60 to m2505 + 100. The Brazilian 5 - month shipping schedule's disk import crushing profit increased by 41.7% to 340 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed Meal: The current price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2630 yuan, an increase of 0.38%. The futures price of RM2509 decreased by 2.29% to 2736 yuan. The disk import crushing profit of Canadian 5 - month shipping schedule decreased by 31.65% to 362 yuan [2]. Corn - Corn: The 2505 contract price of Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price decreased by 0.87% to 2268 yuan, and the basis increased by 20.83% to - 38 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 9.84% to - 67 yuan. The north - south trade profit increased by 27.78% to - 26 yuan, and the import profit decreased by 18.59% to 102 yuan [4]. - Corn Starch: The 2507 contract price of corn starch decreased by 1.01% to 2654 yuan, and the basis increased by 29.67% to - 64 yuan. The 7 - 9 spread decreased by 4.41% to - 71 yuan, and the starch - corn disk spread decreased by 1.78% to 386 yuan [4]. Pig - Futures Market: On April 9, the main contract basis decreased by 22.58% to 360 yuan. The price of the 2505 contract decreased by 0.77% to 13485 yuan, and the price of the 2509 contract increased by 0.74% to 14290 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 35.29% to 805 yuan [8]. - Spot Market: The spot prices in various regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Hebei showed little change. The sample - point slaughter volume decreased by 0.87% to 136813 heads, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 9.32% to 47 yuan/head [8]. Sugar - Futures Market: The 2505 contract price of white sugar decreased by 0.69% to 6006 yuan, and the 2509 contract price decreased by 0.40% to 5903 yuan. The ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 2.24% to 17.89 cents/pound [14]. - Spot Market: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, and the basis in Nanning increased by 21.57% to 124 yuan, while the basis in Kunming decreased by 37.50% to - 11 yuan. The production and sales of sugar in China and Guangxi increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory also increased [14]. Cotton - Futures Market: The 2505 contract price of cotton decreased by 1.95% to 12585 yuan, and the 2509 contract price decreased by 1.85% to 12760 yuan. The ICE US cotton main contract increased by 1.29% to 66.51 cents/pound [16]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B decreased. The commercial inventory decreased by 6.1% to 517.81 tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 2.8% to 95.73 tons [16]. Eggs - Prices and Spreads: The 09 contract price of eggs increased by 0.57% to 3896 yuan/500KG, and the 05 contract price increased by 0.22% to 3130 yuan/500KG. The egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 4.49% to 2.55, and the breeding profit decreased by 104.65% to - 14.53 yuan/feather [19].