Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on the rebar industry chain dated April 10, 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - RB main contract closing price is 3,139.00 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan; RB main contract position is 1,686,421 lots, down 749 lots; RB contract top 20 net position is -46,971 lots, up 50,874 lots; RB2505 - RB2510 contract spread is -78, down 3; RB SHFE warehouse receipt daily report is 233,880 tons, up 2,692 tons; HC2505 - RB2505 contract spread is 116 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM is 3,180.00 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM is 3,450.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) is 3,210.00 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; RB main contract basis is 41.00 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight) is 3,261.54 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines are 760.00 yuan/wet ton, up 26 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,450.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 10mm scrap steel (tax - excluded) is 2,145.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Hebei Q235 billet is 2,960.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; domestic iron ore port inventory is 14,464.47 million tons, down 52.87 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory is 66.48 million tons, down 3.26 million tons; sample steel mill coke inventory is 672.85 million tons, up 4.69 million tons; Tangshan billet inventory is 91.46 million tons, down 4.86 million tons [2] Industry Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate is 83.15%, up 1.02 percentage points; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 89.66%, up 0.56 percentage points; sample steel mill rebar output is 232.37 million tons, up 3.72 million tons; rebar apparent demand is 252.68 million tons, up 2.99 million tons; sample steel mill rebar inventory is 214.66 million tons, up 7.54 million tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory is 563.10 million tons, down 27.85 million tons; independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate is 71.88%, unchanged; domestic crude steel output is 7,597 million tons, down 243 million tons; China's rebar monthly output is 1,675 million tons, down 61 million tons; steel net export volume is 749.00 million tons, down 95.00 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.80, up 0.45; fixed - asset investment completion cumulative year - on - year is 3.20%, down 0.90 percentage points; real estate development investment cumulative year - on - year is - 10.60%, down 0.80 percentage points; infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) cumulative year - on - year is 4.40%, down 1.20 percentage points; housing new construction area cumulative year - on - year is - 29.60%, unchanged; housing construction area cumulative year - on - year is - 9.10%, unchanged; commercial housing unsold area is 43,174.00 million square meters, up 4,086.00 million square meters; 100 - city land transaction area is 4,570.76 million square meters, down 469.74 million square meters [2] Group 3: Industry News - On April 8, the US government raised the "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods from 34% to 84%, and China raised the additional tariff on US goods from 34% to 84% starting from April 10, 12:01 [2] - Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said Trump's tariffs would lead to the collapse of the monetary system, political pattern, and world order, and the era of US single - pole dominance is over [2] Group 4: Core View - On April 10, the rebar RB2510 contract fluctuated strongly. Macroscopically, on April 9 (US time), Trump authorized a 90 - day tariff suspension for some countries, lowering tariffs to 10%, boosting the market. In terms of supply and demand, rebar weekly output increased by 3.72 million tons, inventory decreased for six consecutive weeks, and apparent demand remained around 2.5 million tons. Some coking enterprises proposed a first - round coke price increase, but steel mills haven't responded. Overall, tariff issues will continue to affect the market and investor sentiment, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 4 - hour K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market is expected to run weakly with fluctuations [2]
瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250410
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-10 10:11