大越期货原油早报-20250411

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff policy has a significant impact on the market, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has significantly lowered its oil price forecasts for this year and next, as well as the oil demand growth forecast. The crude oil market still faces large fluctuations, and investors are advised to operate cautiously. Short - term trading can be conducted in the 455 - 465 range, while long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Trump's tariff policy on China and the EIA's view that tariffs are casting a shadow over the global economic outlook and may drag down oil prices in the coming months. The EIA has also lowered its oil demand forecast until 2026. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - Basis: On April 10, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $65.62 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $64.72 per barrel. The basis was 34.32 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - Inventory: The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 1.057 million barrels in the week ending April 4, contrary to the expected increase of 2.6 million barrels. The EIA inventory increased by 2.553 million barrels in the week ending April 4, more than the expected increase of 1.421 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.681 million barrels in the week ending April 4. As of April 10, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.777 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - Main Position: As of April 1, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts decreased, while those of Brent crude oil main contracts increased, with a neutral assessment [3]. - Expectation: Overnight, crude oil gave back most of its previous gains. The tariff policy still has a large impact on the market. The EIA has significantly lowered its oil price forecasts for this year and next, as well as the oil demand growth forecast. Geopolitically, there is still great uncertainty about Iran's potential agreement with the US. Crude oil still faces large fluctuations, and investors are advised to operate cautiously. Short - term trading can be conducted in the 455 - 465 range, while long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 3.2 Recent News - EIA Forecast Adjustment: The EIA has significantly lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It now expects the Brent crude oil price to be $67.87 per barrel in 2025 (previously $74.22) and $61.48 per barrel in 2026 (previously $68.47). The WTI crude oil price is expected to be $63.88 per barrel in 2025 (previously $70.68) and $57.48 per barrel in 2026 (previously $64.97). The EIA has also cut the global oil demand growth forecast by 0.4 million barrels per day this year. In terms of production, the EIA expects US oil production to be 13.51 million barrels per day in 2025 (previously 13.61 million) and 13.56 million barrels per day in 2026 (previously 13.76 million) [5]. - US Inflation Data: In March, US consumer prices unexpectedly declined due to lower gasoline and used - vehicle prices. The consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1%, the first decline since May 2020. The core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, the smallest increase since March 2021. After the inflation data was released, traders bet that the Fed would cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year [5]. - Fed Officials' Views: Several Fed officials believe that Trump's suspension of some new import taxes may temporarily ease the pressure on the financial market, but the conditions for readjusting the US economic outlook still exist, including an increased risk of recession and potential inflation. Fed's Goolsbee said that tariffs bring significant uncertainty, and the Fed may still cut interest rates if the economy gets back on track. Dallas Fed President Logan believes that the Fed must prevent tariffs from causing more persistent inflation [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: The resurgence of the Israeli - Palestinian conflict, increased US sanctions on Iran, and the risk of sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil [6]. - Bearish Factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, the risk of tariff trade wars has increased significantly, and the sanctions on Russia may end [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil changed. Brent crude oil rose by 2.66 to $65.48, an increase of 4.23%. WTI crude oil rose by 2.77 to $62.35, an increase of 4.65%. SC crude oil fell by 13.70 to 468.0, a decrease of 2.84%. Oman crude oil fell by 3.22 to $61.86, a decrease of 4.95% [7]. - Spot Market: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil also changed. UK Brent Dtd fell by 3.59 to $62.80, a decrease of 5.41%. WTI rose by 2.77 to $62.35, an increase of 4.65%. Oman crude oil fell by 3.27 to $62.22, a decrease of 4.99%. Shengli crude oil fell by 2.85 to $57.97, a decrease of 4.69%. Dubai crude oil fell by 3.39 to $62.03, a decrease of 5.18% [9]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of April 1, the net long positions of WTI crude oil funds were 167,685, a decrease of 12,873 [17]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of April 1, the net long positions of Brent crude oil funds were 318,182, an increase of 56,112 [18].