大越期货天胶早报-20250411

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are rising, domestic inventories are starting to increase, and tire operating rates are rising, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - The spot price is 14,750 with a basis of -225, showing a bullish tendency [4]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao has also increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, remaining neutral [4]. - The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is trading below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - Market sentiment dominates, and short - term intraday bearish trading is recommended [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals are neutral with supply increasing, foreign spot prices rising, domestic inventories starting to increase, and tire operating rates rising [4]. - The basis is bullish with a spot price of 14,750 and a basis of -225 [4]. - The inventory situation is neutral as the exchange and Qingdao inventories have increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year [4]. - The market trend on the disk is bearish with the 20 - day moving average downward and the price below it [4]. - The main positions are bearish as they are net short and short positions are decreasing [4]. - Short - term intraday bearish trading is expected due to market sentiment [4]. 2. Fundamental Data - The 2023 full - latex, non - deliverable, had a flat spot price on April 10 [8]. - The exchange inventory is seasonally increasing [14]. - The Qingdao area inventory has recently increased [17]. - The import volume has rebounded [20]. - Automobile production and sales are seasonally declining [23][26]. - Tire production is at a record high for the same period [29]. - The tire industry's exports are rebounding [32]. - The basis narrowed on April 10 [35]. 3. Multi - empty Factors - Bullish factors include the gradual recovery of the domestic economy, high downstream consumption, and strong raw material prices [6]. - Bearish factors are the increasing supply, increasing market inventory, and a bearish external environment [6].