Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that the urea market will experience short - term fluctuations. The fundamentals are generally neutral, with high daily production, significant inventory reduction, and potential demand boosts from increased exports of related products. It is recommended to keep an eye on low - level buying opportunities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has been fluctuating recently. Supply shows high daily production and high operating rates, with significant inventory reduction. The industrial demand includes a good operating rate for compound fertilizers and a neutral rate for melamine, while agricultural demand has limited short - term changes. There is no news of changes in urea export policies, but increased exports of related products like ammonium sulfate and boards may drive urea demand. The overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2505 contract is 25, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.3%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 874,000 tons, a decrease of 124,000 tons, suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - Futures Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Given high daily production and rapid inventory reduction, the market is predicted to fluctuate today [4]. - Likely Influencing Factors: Positive factors include cost support and marginal demand recovery, while negative factors are the overall weakness of commodities due to additional tariffs and ample supply. The main logic lies in high daily production on the supply side and marginal demand changes, with the main risk being changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market - Spot: The price of delivery - eligible urea is 1,890 yuan (+10), the Shandong spot price is 1,890 yuan (+10), the Henan spot price is 1,900 yuan, and the FOB China price is 2,026 yuan [4][6]. - Futures: The UR05 contract price is 1,865 yuan (+35), the UR01 contract price is 1,781 yuan (+30), and the UR09 contract price is 1,823 yuan (+32) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 874,000 tons (-124,000 tons), the warehouse receipt is 4,687 (-163), the UR factory inventory is 475,000 tons, and the UR port inventory is 120,000 tons [4][6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry's production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend. For example, the production capacity increased from 2,245.5 in 2018 to 4,418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The consumption growth rate was 8.4% in 2024 [9].
大越期货尿素早报-20250411
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-04-11 03:56