大越期货油脂早报-20250411

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the documents. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are oscillating and consolidating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's production forecast for South America in the 24/25 season is high, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but the international biodiesel profit is low and demand is weak. The domestic tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The deterioration of Sino - US relations and tariff issues affect the market [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in February, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production reduction falling short of expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is rated as neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8042, with a basis of 396, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [2]. - Inventory: On April 7, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous 860,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. It is rated as bearish [2]. - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is rated as bearish [2]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. It is rated as bearish [2]. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil should be traded in the range of 7450 - 7850 for the Y2509 contract [2]. 3.2 Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is rated as neutral [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9384, with a basis of 630, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [3]. - Inventory: On April 7, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous value of 390,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%. It is rated as bullish [3]. - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is rated as bearish [3]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing. It is rated as bullish [3]. - Expectation: The price of palm oil should be traded in the range of 8550 - 8950 for the Y2505 contract [3]. 3.3 Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is rated as neutral [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9333, with a basis of 68, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [4]. - Inventory: On April 7, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous value of 630,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. It is rated as bearish [4]. - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is rated as neutral [4]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. It is rated as bearish [4]. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil should be traded in the range of 9000 - 9450 for the OI2505 contract [4]. 3.4 Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish Factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is currently the palm oil production reduction season [5]. - Bearish Factors: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].