大越期货沥青期货早报-20250411

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: In April 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.289 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 97,000 tons (4.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 4,000 tons (0.2%). This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, the sample enterprise output decreased, and the device maintenance volume increased. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - Demand side: The current demand of various types of asphalt and related products is lower than the historical average level. The overall demand is affected by the off - season and is less than expected and sluggish [7]. - Cost side: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 780.77 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.28%. The loss of asphalt processing increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [8]. - Expectation: The refinery has reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure. The inventory is continuously decreasing. The strengthening of crude oil provides short - term cost support. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2506 fluctuating in the range of 3299 - 3365 [9]. - Factors: Bullish factors include the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with the strengthening expectation of the European and American economic recession. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The planned production in April 2025 decreased month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate, output, and maintenance volume of sample enterprises changed this week. Next week, supply pressure may rise [7]. - Demand: The current demand of various types of asphalt and related products is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The processing profit of asphalt and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking changed, and the strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price [8]. - Expectation: The futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [9]. - Factors: Bullish and bearish factors coexist, and the supply - demand situation is that supply pressure is high and demand recovery is weak [12][13][14] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - Market Overview: The prices, inventories, and production data of different asphalt contracts and related products changed. For example, the prices of most contracts increased, the social inventory increased, the factory inventory decreased, and the port diluted asphalt inventory increased [17]. - Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: On April 10, the Shandong spot price was 3425 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 93 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - Spread: Analyzed the spread trends of different contracts, the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil through multiple charts [24][27][30][34]. - Fundamentals - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: Analyzed the asphalt profit and the profit - spread trend between coking and asphalt through charts [41][44]. - Supply - side Analysis: Analyzed the supply - side situation from aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, price of Ma Rui crude oil, local refinery asphalt production, start - up rate, and maintenance loss volume through multiple charts [47][49][52][56][59][62][65]. - Inventory Analysis: Analyzed the inventory situation from aspects such as exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, factory inventory inventory ratio, and import - export situation through multiple charts [68][73][76][79]. - Demand - side Analysis: Analyzed the demand - side situation from aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand, asphalt start - up rate, and downstream start - up situation through multiple charts [85][88][91][100][106]. - Supply - Demand Balance Table: Presented the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data from January 2024 to April 2025 [111][112].