Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term macro sentiment improves, tin price rebounds, but with Congo - Kinshasa's resumption of production, the supply side is gradually repaired, and the US tariff affects demand expectations. Maintain a bearish view on the rebound of tin prices and follow up on the production dynamics of Burmese tin mines [1]. Nickel - Recently, the trading logic of the nickel market is macro - dominated. The price has fallen below the integrated cost of high - grade nickel matte, and the cost support at the bottom has been strengthened. In the short term, under macro uncertainty and relatively low valuation, the market is expected to fluctuate widely. Wait for the macro sentiment to subside and the market to return to fundamental trading [2]. Stainless Steel - The short - term supply of stainless steel is relatively loose, demand has certain resilience but recovers slowly, and inventory is high with pressure. Affected by the international macro situation, the short - term macro impact has not subsided, and the market is expected to run weakly. The operating range of the main contract is adjusted downward to 12,400 - 13,000 [4]. Zinc - The supply side of zinc shows a continuous loosening trend in the ore end. The demand side is relatively stable, but under tariff pressure, the zinc price is under pressure. After the suspension of the reciprocal tariff policy, the tariff pressure is slightly relieved. In the short term, the price is weak, and attention should be paid to the recovery of peak - season demand and domestic policy support [6]. Aluminum - For alumina, the supply side has high - level operating capacity, and the demand is stable with limited increments. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the price is supported by phased production cuts. For electrolytic aluminum, the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate is slowly increasing, and the terminal consumption recovery is slow. The overseas reciprocal tariff policy is suspended, and the macro pressure is slightly relieved. It is recommended to pay attention to cost changes and capacity operation and temporarily wait and see [8]. Copper - Macro factors such as the repeated US reciprocal tariff policy increase copper price fluctuations. Fundamentally, the continuous decline of TC in the early stage of copper ore supports the price. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and the reference range for the main contract is 73,000 - 76,000 [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate lack positive factors. The supply pressure is clear, demand is generally stable, and inventory is high. Under the influence of tariff policies, the export of energy - storage orders may decline. In the short term, the market is expected to run weakly, and a bearish trading strategy is recommended, with the main contract referring to 68,000 - 72,000 [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Tin: SMM 1 tin price is 256,200 yuan/ton, down 0.97%; SMM 1 tin premium is 1,700 yuan/ton, up 61.90%; LME 0 - 3 premium is - 110.00 dollars/ton, down 320.00% [1]. - Nickel: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,025 yuan/ton, up 1.03%; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 3,200 yuan/ton, down 4.48%; LME 0 - 3 is - 175 dollars/ton, up 16.28% [2]. - Stainless Steel: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,250 yuan/ton, down 0.75%; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - Zinc: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,960 yuan/ton, up 3.42%; the premium is 310 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton [6]. - Aluminum: SMM A00 aluminum price is 19,880 yuan/ton, up 1.79%; SMM A00 aluminum premium is 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [8]. - Copper: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 75,105 yuan/ton, up 3.84%; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 60 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,750 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,800 yuan/ton, up 0.50% [11]. Inter - month Spreads - Tin: The spread between 2504 - 2505 is - 200 yuan/ton, up 77.01% compared with the previous value; the spread between 2505 - 2506 is 140 yuan/ton, down 92.86% [1]. - Nickel: The spread between 2505 - 2506 is - 10 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton compared with the previous value; the spread between 2506 - 2507 is - 70 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2]. - Stainless Steel: The spread between 2505 - 2506 is - 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the spread between 2506 - 2507 is - 25 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [4]. - Zinc: The spread between 2504 - 2505 is 285 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the spread between 2505 - 2506 is 230 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [6]. - Aluminum: The spread between 2504 - 2505 is 15 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; the spread between 2505 - 2506 is 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [8]. - Copper: The spread between 2504 - 2505 is 100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the spread between 2505 - 2506 is 80 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spread between 2504 - 2505 is 160 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton; the spread between 2505 - 2506 is - 180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data Tin - In February, the import of tin ore was 8,745 tons, down 11.15% year - on - year; the output of refined tin was 14,050 tons, down 10.45%; the import volume of refined tin was 1,869 tons, down 19.92%; the export volume was 2,373 tons, up 11.36% [1]. Nickel - China's refined nickel output in a certain period was 28,320 tons, down 5.69%; the import volume was 18,897 tons, up 99.27% [2]. Stainless Steel - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 344.01 million tons, up 11.37%; the output of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (Qinglong) was 42.00 million tons, down 6.67% [4]. Zinc - In March, the output of refined zinc was 54.69 million tons, up 13.70%; in February, the import volume was 3.37 million tons, down 15.27%; the export volume was 0.04 million tons, down 91.04% [6]. Aluminum - In March, the output of alumina was 754.90 million tons, up 8.85%; the output of electrolytic aluminum was 371.42 million tons, up 11.22% [8]. Copper - In March, the output of electrolytic copper was 112.21 million tons, up 6.04%; in February, the import volume was 26.80 million tons, up 0.85% [9]. Lithium Carbonate - In March, the output of lithium carbonate was 79,065 tons, up 23.44%; the demand was 86,951 tons, up 15.02%; in February, the import volume was 12,328 tons, down 38.73%; the export volume was 417 tons, up 4.65% [11]. Inventory Changes Tin - SHEF weekly inventory was 9,872.0 tons, up 6.67%; social inventory was 12,004.0 tons, up 4.55%; SHEF daily warehouse receipts were 9,295.0 tons, down 2.35%; LME daily inventory was 3,195.0 tons, down 0.78% [1]. Nickel - SHFE inventory was 36,925 tons, up 14.13%; social inventory was 47,423 tons, up 0.67%; bonded - area inventory was 6,300 tons, unchanged; LME inventory was 203,646 tons, up 0.38%; SHFE warehouse receipts were 24,452 tons, down 3.50% [2]. Stainless Steel - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 56.58 million tons, up 0.53%; the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 38.33 million tons, up 1.13%; SHFE warehouse receipts were 20.00 million tons, down 0.63% [4]. Zinc - The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots was 10.21 million tons, down 6.42%; LME inventory was 12.2 million tons, down 1.10% [6]. Aluminum - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was 74.40 million tons, down 2.75%; LME inventory was 44.6 million tons, down 0.71% [8]. Copper - The domestic social inventory was 26.72 million tons, down 14.80%; the bonded - area inventory was 9.16 million tons, down 4.18%; SHFE inventory was 22.57 million tons, down 4.06%; LME inventory was 20.94 million tons, down 1.18%; COMEX inventory was 11.17 million tons, up 4.22%; SHFE warehouse receipts were 8.95 million tons, down 8.08% [9]. Lithium Carbonate - In March, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 90,070 tons, up 16.79%; the downstream inventory was 39,293 tons, up 27.94%; the smelter inventory was 50,777 tons, up 9.40% [11].
广发期货《有色》日报-20250411
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-04-11 05:07