原木期货日报-20250411

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply pressure of logs remained in early April. It is expected that the arrival of logs will improve marginally from the middle of April. If the inventory reduction intensifies later and considering the current low price level, there may be short - term rebound space. However, the decline in spot prices is dragging down the futures market, and the entry into the off - season for shipments in May will suppress the rebound. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 810 - 850 yuan. Also, the tariff upgrade has led to weak macro - sentiment and increased market uncertainty [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On April 10, compared with April 9, the prices of log futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all increased, with increases of 6.0 yuan (0.73%), 5.5 yuan (0.66%), and 8.0 yuan (0.95%) respectively. The 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 spreads and the 07, 09, 11 contract basis all changed [2]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on April 10 compared with April 9. The CFR price of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A decreased by 1 US dollar/JAS cubic meter (- 0.87%), while the CFR price of spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged [2]. - Import Cost: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased from 7.387 to 7.356, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 10.49 yuan (- 1%) to 823.82 yuan [2]. Supply - Monthly Supply: From December 31 to February 28, the port shipping volume increased by 66.8 million cubic meters (50.98%) to 197.9 million cubic meters, and the number of ships at the port increased by 9 (18.37%) to 58 [2]. - Inventory: As of April 4, the total inventory of main ports in China was 359 million cubic meters, a decrease of 1 million cubic meters (- 0.28%) compared with March 28. In Shandong, it increased by 9.0 million cubic meters (4.74%), while in Jiangsu, it decreased by 7.8 million cubic meters (- 6.06%) [2][3]. Demand - Daily Average Out - bound Volume: As of April 4, the daily average out - bound volume of logs in China was 7.16 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.46 million cubic meters (7%) compared with March 28. In Shandong, it increased by 0.93 million cubic meters (28%), while in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.42 million cubic meters (- 15%) [3].