广发期货-日评-20250411

Report Investment Ratings - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity sectors, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Summary by Directory Financial Sector - Equity Index: Tariff conflicts show signs of cooling, risk assets rebound collectively. The index is still at a low level, and it's difficult to fill the gap in the short term. Pay attention to domestic hedging policies for potential repair opportunities. For options, adopt a bull spread strategy [3]. - Treasury Bonds: The positive impact of tariff shocks on the bond market may not be fully released, but as Treasury yields approach the previous low of the year, the further decline of long - term bond yields has slowed down. Short - term market may fluctuate narrowly waiting for catalysts [3]. - Precious Metals: Tariff policies further intensify the impact on US dollar assets, driving strong safe - haven demand. Gold hits a new high, and silver fluctuates widely [3]. - Shipping Index (European Line): The main EC contract rebounds. With the short - term easing of tariff impacts, consider going long on the over - sold contracts in peak seasons (June and August) [3]. - Steel and Iron Ore: Sino - US tariffs dominate the market sentiment, and spot steel prices follow the futures market down. Pay attention to the long - steel short - ore arbitrage [3]. Black Sector - Coke and Coking Coal: After the eleventh round of coke price cuts, the price stabilizes, and coke enterprises start to propose the first round of price increases. The market auction of coking coal has improved slightly, but the inventory is high, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - Silicon - based Products: Macro - disturbances intensify, and manufacturers increase production cuts. Macro - sentiment is changeable, and factory inventories continue to accumulate [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - Various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as tariff policies and macro - uncertainties, showing different price trends and trading ranges [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude Oil: The market is still worried about macro - uncertainties, and short - term oil prices are likely to fluctuate widely [3]. - Chemical Products: Different chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, PX and PTA are supported in the short term, while urea is weak [3]. Agricultural Sector - Different agricultural products are affected by factors such as trade policies, USDA reports, and seasonal demand. For example, soybeans are boosted by the USDA report, and live pigs are volatile under trade policies [3]. Special Commodity Sector - Different special commodities have different market conditions. For example, glass production and sales are strong in some areas, but the macro - sentiment is volatile; rubber prices rebound due to the suspension of tariff collection [3]. New Energy Sector - Polysilicon futures open higher and then decline, with the basis narrowing. From a fundamental perspective, long positions can be held, and shorting PS2511 can be considered as protection [3]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is in a low - level shock, and the macro - sentiment needs to be digested. The main contract is expected to operate between 68,000 - 72,000 [4].