工业硅多晶硅市场周报：双硅市场如履薄冰，悲观情绪正在发酵-20250411

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon closed down 3.72% and polysilicon closed down 4.16%, with pessimistic market sentiment spreading. For industrial silicon, overall supply changes are limited, though different regions have opposite trends. Demand from the silicone and aluminum alloy sectors has limitations. High inventory is a key factor affecting the subsequent market. For polysilicon, there is little new capacity in 2025, and demand is weakening. High inventory also exerts pressure on prices [7]. - The recommended operation is that the main contract of industrial silicon should be mainly range - bound between 9400 - 9800 with a stop - loss range of 9300 - 9900. The main contract of polysilicon should be mainly short - term volatile between 41000 - 43000 with a stop - loss range of 40000 - 43500 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Market Performance: Industrial silicon futures fell 3.72% this week, with the basis strengthening as the futures did not follow the spot. The 5 - month contract is about to end, and it remains to be seen if there will be a maturity - return opportunity next week. Polysilicon futures fell 4.16%, with the downstream rush - installation period ending, subsequent orders decreasing, and the high inventory expected to lead to a decline in spot prices [7]. - Market Outlook: For industrial silicon, supply changes are limited overall. Demand from the silicone and aluminum alloy sectors has limitations, and high inventory affects the market. For polysilicon, few new capacities are planned in 2025, and demand is weakening due to factors such as reduced orders and high inventory [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fell 3.72% this week. As of April 11, 2025, the average industrial silicon operating rate dropped to 36.62%, a decrease of 6.75%. In February 2025, the industrial silicon output was 289,350 tons. As of April 11, 2025, the spot price was 10,100 yuan/ton, and as of April 10, 2025, the basis was 595 yuan/ton [8][14][20]. - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon futures rose 0.00% this week. As of April 11, 2025, the spot price was 42 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 190 yuan/g [8][27]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Raw Materials and Cost: This week, the raw material prices of industrial silicon remained stable. The cost in the southwest region is high, with the cost of 421 silicon in the southwest region at 13,400 - 13,900 yuan/ton, while the market price is 10,700 - 11,700 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss of 2,200 - 2,700 yuan/ton. Many manufacturers have no intention to start production [32]. - Inventory: As of April 10, 2025, the industrial silicon warehouse receipts were 70,053 lots. As of April 3, 2025, the total social inventory of metal silicon was 608,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons, still at a historical high [38]. - Downstream Industry - Organic Silicon: The output and operating rate of organic silicon continued to decline this week. As of April 11, 2025, the weekly output was 40,500 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 61.49%, a decrease of 1.06%. The spot price was 14,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit was 1,538.75 yuan, showing a significant increase [44][50]. - Downstream Industry - Aluminum Alloy: The spot price of aluminum alloy declined, and the inventory increased. As of April 11, 2025, the price was 20,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week, and the inventory was 19,300 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from last week [54]. - Downstream Industry - Polysilicon: The silicon wafer price decreased slightly, and the battery cell price remained flat. As of April 9, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.39 yuan/piece, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece from last week, and the battery cell price was 0.32 yuan/watt, the same as last week. The rush - installation demand cooled down, which is expected to drag down the polysilicon demand [62]. - Industrial Chain: The price of photovoltaic - grade trichlorosilane remained flat. In March 2025, the polysilicon production was 95,700 tons. Some enterprises plan to increase production in April, with an expected increase of 4,000 - 5,000 tons [66].