Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of the tariff war, the capital market declined sharply at the beginning of the week, increasing concerns about market recession, weakening the expected demand for industrial products, and leading to a weak sentiment in the commodity market, with industrial products hitting a new low since December 2020. The tariff increase on the US has little direct impact on coal but indirectly affects it through steel demand, and it is expected that US coal imports will be restricted. Monetary policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are expected to be introduced soon [9]. - Overseas, the US government's adjustment of tariff policies and the authorization of tariff suspension measures by Trump have led to volatile market sentiment [9]. - In terms of supply and demand, the supply is loose, and due to the impact of tariffs, the demand in the sector is under pressure, with negative feedback from raw materials. The main contradiction is that tariffs dominate market sentiment, and the tariff issue will continue to disrupt the market repeatedly during Trump's term [9]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of coking coal 2509 is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend in the weekly chart. - Operationally, coking coal 2505 is expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Price and Spread: As of the Friday daytime session close, the futures price of coking coal contract 2505 was 1001.0 yuan/ton (-23.0), and the ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1160 yuan/ton (unchanged) [8]. - Mine Production: The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 196.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.9 million tons; the daily average output of 110 coal washing plants was 52.86 million tons, an increase of 1.04 million tons [8]. - Total Coking Coal Inventory: The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 1919.39 million tons this period, a week - on - week increase of 66.34 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 20.76% [8]. - Tonnage Coke Profit: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 49 yuan/ton [8]. - Steel Mill Profit Rate: The profit rate of steel mills was 53.68%, a decrease of 1.73 percentage points from last week and an increase of 15.58 percentage points compared to the same period last year [8]. - Iron Water Production: Iron water production continued to increase slightly, reaching 240.22 million tons, an increase of 1.49 million tons from last week and an increase of 15.47 million tons compared to the same period last year [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of April 11, the position of coking coal futures contracts was 46.42 million lots, a week - on - week decrease of 6.06 million lots; the spread between futures JM2509 and JM2505 (far - month minus near - month) was 104 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 31.5 yuan/ton. As of April 10, 2025, the registered coking coal warehouse receipts were 200 lots, a week - on - week increase of 200 lots; as of April 11, 2025, the spread between the main contracts of coke and coking coal was 629.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 [15][21]. - Spot Market: As of April 10, 2025, the flat - price of coke at Rizhao Port was 1460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. As of April 11, 2025, the coking coal basis was 247 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 88.5 [27]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - Supply - side Production: On April 10, the verified capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 87.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.8%. The daily average output of raw coal was 196.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.9 million tons, and the daily average output of clean coal was 78.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4 million tons. On April 9, the operating rate of 110 coal washing plant samples nationwide was 62.70%, an increase of 1.93% from the previous period; the daily average output was 52.86 million tons, an increase of 1.04 million tons [31]. - Inventory Situation: As of April 11, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the full sample of independent coking enterprises was 72.96%, an increase of 0.28%; the daily average coke output was 64.84, an increase of 0.01; the coke inventory was 107.30, a decrease of 10.17; the total coking coal inventory was 965.69, an increase of 14.1; the available days of coking coal were 11.2 days, an increase of 0.16 days. As of April 4, 2025, the total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 1919.39 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 66.34 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 20.76%. As of April 11, the inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports nationwide was 646.40, a decrease of 7.18; the inventory of coke at 18 ports nationwide was 277.30, an increase of 16.02. The inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills was 779.63, an increase of 10.08, and the available days of coking coal were 12.36 days, an increase of 0.15 days; the inventory of pulverized coal injection was 402.94, a decrease of 3.64, and the available days of pulverized coal injection were 11.94 days, a decrease of 0.14 days [35][39]. - Downstream Demand: As of April 10, the daily average iron water output of 247 steel mills was 240.22 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.49 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 15.47 million tons. As of April 11, the available days of coking coal for the full sample of independent coking enterprises were 11.2 days, an increase of 0.16 days [43]. - Coking Enterprise Profit: From January to December 2024, the coke output was 48927.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.68%. In December 2024, the coke output was 4148.1 million tons, almost the same as the previous period. As of April 10, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 49 yuan/ton [47]. - Upstream Production: From January to February 2025, the raw coal output increased by 7.7% year - on - year, and the growth rate accelerated compared to December of the previous year. In February 2025, the coking coal output was 3622.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 9.15%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative coking coal output was 46945.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.17% [52]. - Import Situation: In 2024, China imported 5.4 billion tons of coal, a year - on - year increase of 14.4%, hitting a record high, including a cumulative import of 12189.5 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year increase of 19.62%. From January to February 2025, China imported 1884.55 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year increase of 5.59% [57].
焦煤市场周报：关税战冲击供应链，商品下挫焦煤下跌-20250411
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-11 08:51